지역기후모형 자료를 이용한 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량 예측
Prediction of Paddy Irrigation Demand in Nakdong River Basin Using Regional Climate Model Outputs
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Abstract
The paddy irrigation demand for Nakdong river basin in Korea due to the climate change have been analyzed using regional climate model outputs. High-resolution (27 × 27 km) climate data for SRES A2 scenario produced by the Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), South Korea, and the observed baseline climatology dataset (1971-2000) were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by METRI. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the geographic information system. The results of this study showed that the average growing season temperature will increase steadily by 1.5 °C (2020s A2), 3.2 °C (2050s A2) and 5.2 °C (2080s A2) from the baseline (1971-2000) 19.8 °C. The average growing season rainfall will change by -3.4 % (2020s A2), 0.0 % (2050s A2) and +16.5 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 886 mm. Assuming paddy area and cropping pattern remain unchanged the average volumetric irrigation demands were predicted to increase by 5.3 % (2020s A2), 8.1 % (2050s A2) and 2.2 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 1.159 × 106 m3. These projections are different from the previous study by Chung (2009) which used a different GCM and downscaling method and projected decreasing irrigation demands. This indicates that one should be careful in interpreting the results of similar studies.
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