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기후변화가 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량에 미치는 영향

Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Irrigation Requirement in the Nakdong River Basin

정상옥
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society Of Agricultural Engineers)|2009.03|한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)|제51권 제2호|pp. 35-41

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참고문헌

주제분류농학

초록

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation requirements for Nakdong river basin in Korea have been analyzed. The HadCM3 model outputs for SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and International Water Management Institute 10’x10’ pixels observed data were used with kriging method. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the GIS. The results showed that the average growing season temperature was projected to increase by 2.2°C (2050s A2), 0.0°C (2050s B2), 3.7°C (2080s A2) and 2.9°C (2080s B2) from the baseline (1961-1990) value of 21°C. The average growing season rainfall was projected to increase by 15.2% (2050s A2), 24.2% (2050s B2), 41.4% (2080s A2) and 16.7% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 900 mm. Average volumetric irrigation demands were projected to decrease by 3.7% (2050s A2), 7.0% (2050s B2), 10.2% (2080s A2) and 1.4% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 1.25×109 m³. These results can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning in the Nakdong river basin for the future.

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