기후학적 물수지를 적용한 기후변화에 따른 농업기상지표 변동예측의 불확실성
Uncertainty Characteristics in Future Prediction of Agrometeorological Indicators using a Climatic Water Budget Approach
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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under fourmajor greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. Theseprovide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicatorsestimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to useclimate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it isthe most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting asubset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, wecould provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimumtemperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.
Abstract
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under fourmajor greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. Theseprovide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicatorsestimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to useclimate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it isthe most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting asubset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, wecould provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimumtemperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.
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