예보강우 시간분해를 위한 Multiplicative Cascade 모형의 적용성 평가
Applicability of a Multiplicative Random Cascade Model for Disaggregation of Forecasted Rainfalls
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
High resolution rainfall data at 1-hour or a finer scale are essential for reliable flood analysis and forecasting; nevertheless, many observations, forecasts,and climate projections are still given at coarse temporal resolutions. This study aims to evaluate a chaotic method for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfalldata sets so as to apply operational 6-hour rainfall forecasts of the Korean Meteorological Association to flood models. We computed parameters of astate-of-the-art multiplicative random cascade model with two combinations of cascades, namely uniform splitting and diversion, using rainfallobservations at Seoul station, and compared statistical performance. We additionally disaggregated 6-hour rainfall time series at 58 stations with theuniform splitting and evaluated temporal transferability of the parameters and changes in multifractal properties. Results showed that the uniformsplitting outperformed the diversion in reproduction of observed statistics, and hence is better to be used for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfall forecasts. We also found that multifractal properties of rainfall observations has adequate temporal consistency with an indication of gradually increasing rainfallintensity across South Korea.
Abstract
High resolution rainfall data at 1-hour or a finer scale are essential for reliable flood analysis and forecasting; nevertheless, many observations, forecasts,and climate projections are still given at coarse temporal resolutions. This study aims to evaluate a chaotic method for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfalldata sets so as to apply operational 6-hour rainfall forecasts of the Korean Meteorological Association to flood models. We computed parameters of astate-of-the-art multiplicative random cascade model with two combinations of cascades, namely uniform splitting and diversion, using rainfallobservations at Seoul station, and compared statistical performance. We additionally disaggregated 6-hour rainfall time series at 58 stations with theuniform splitting and evaluated temporal transferability of the parameters and changes in multifractal properties. Results showed that the uniformsplitting outperformed the diversion in reproduction of observed statistics, and hence is better to be used for disaggregation of 6-hour rainfall forecasts. We also found that multifractal properties of rainfall observations has adequate temporal consistency with an indication of gradually increasing rainfallintensity across South Korea.
참고문헌 (21)
- Berne, A, "Temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall measurements required for urban hydrology", Journal of Hydrology, 299, pp.166~179 (2004)
- YoungeunChoi, "Changes on Frequency and Magnitude of Heavy Rainfall Events in Korea", Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society, 4(3), pp.269~ (2002), 한국자료분석학회
- Gupta, V. J, "A statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall as a random cascade", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 32, pp.251~267 (1993)
- 한명선, "실시간 예보 시스템을 위한 우량자료 보정 기법 연구", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 42(2), pp.131~139 (2009), 한국수자원학회
- Jung, I. W, "Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea", International Journal of Climatology, 31, pp.359~370 (2011)
- Kim, W, "Decadal changes in climatological intraseasonal fluctuation of subseasonal evolution of summer precipitation over the Korean Penninsula in the mid-1990s", Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28, pp.591~600 (2011)
- Koutsoyiannis, D, "Treatise on water sceince", pp.27~78 (2011), Academic Press
- 이문환, "기후변화에 따른 국내 홍수 취약성 평가", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 44(8), pp.653~666 (2011), 한국수자원학회
- 이상진, "ESP와 RDAPS 수치예보를 이용한 장기유량예측", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 44(12), pp.967~974 (2011), 한국수자원학회
- Licznar, P, "Precipitation variability within an urban monitoring network via microcanonical cascade generators", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, pp.485~506 (2015)
- Linznar, P, "Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology : An evaluation of six models and a new generator", Atmospheric Research, 99, pp.563~578 (2011)
- Lisniak, D, "Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of observed and projected daily rainfall time series", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, pp.2487~2500 (2013)
- Lombardo F, "Rainfall downscaling in time : theoretical and empirical comparison between mutifractal and Hurst-Kolmogorov discrete random cascades", Hydrological Science Journal, 57, pp.1052~1066 (2012)
- Mandelbrot, B, "Intermittent turbulence in self-similar cascades-divergence of high moments and dimension of carrier", Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 62, pp.331~358 (1974)
- Müller, H, "Temporal rainfall disaggregation with a cascade model : from single-station disaggregation to spatial rainfall", Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20, pp.04015026~ (2015)
- Müller, H, "Temporal rainfall disaggregation using a multiplicative cascade model for spatial application in urban hydrology. Journal of Hydrology", Journal of Hydrology (2016)
- Olsson, J, "Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rainfall disaggregation", Hydrology and Earth System Science, 2, pp.19~30 (1998)
- Onof, C, "Rainfall modelling using Possion-cluster processes : a review of developments", Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 14, pp.384~411 (2000)
- Paschalis, A, "On temporal stochastic modeling of precipitation, nesting models across scales", Advances in Water Resources, 63, pp.152~166 (2014)
- Sørup, H. J. D, "Descriptive and predictive evaluation of high resolution Markov chain precipitation models", Environmetrics, 23, pp.623~635 (2012)
- Yim, S. -Y, "Decadal change in the relationship between east Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoons and ENSO in the mid-1990s", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, pp.20711~ (2008)