예보강우의 시간분포에 따른 청미천 유역의 홍수 확률 평가
Assessment of Flood Probability Based on Temporal Distribution of Forecasted-Rainfall in Cheongmicheon Watershed
1
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The objective of this study was to assess the flood probability based on temporal distribution of forecasted-rainfall in Cheongmicheon watershed. Inthis study, 6-hr rainfalls were disaggregated into hourly rainfall using the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which is a stochastic rainfalltime disaggregation model and it was repeated 100 times to make 100 rainfalls for each storm event. The watershed runoff was estimated using theClark unit hydrograph method with disaggregated rainfall and watershed characteristics. Using the peak discharges of the simulated hydrographs, theprobability distribution was determined and parameters were estimated. Using the parameters, the probability density function is shown and the floodprobability is calculated by comparing with the design flood of Cheongmicheon watershed. The flood probability results differed for various values ofrainfall and rainfall duration. In addition, the flood probability calculated in this study was compared with the actual flood damage in Cheongmicheonwatershed (R2 = 0.7). Further, this study results could be used for flood forecasting.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to assess the flood probability based on temporal distribution of forecasted-rainfall in Cheongmicheon watershed. Inthis study, 6-hr rainfalls were disaggregated into hourly rainfall using the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which is a stochastic rainfalltime disaggregation model and it was repeated 100 times to make 100 rainfalls for each storm event. The watershed runoff was estimated using theClark unit hydrograph method with disaggregated rainfall and watershed characteristics. Using the peak discharges of the simulated hydrographs, theprobability distribution was determined and parameters were estimated. Using the parameters, the probability density function is shown and the floodprobability is calculated by comparing with the design flood of Cheongmicheon watershed. The flood probability results differed for various values ofrainfall and rainfall duration. In addition, the flood probability calculated in this study was compared with the actual flood damage in Cheongmicheonwatershed (R2 = 0.7). Further, this study results could be used for flood forecasting.
참고문헌 (18)
- Gupta, V. J., "A statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall as a random cascade", Journal of Applied Meteorology, 32(2), pp.251~267 (1993)[DOI]
- 한명선, "실시간 예보 시스템을 위한 우량자료 보정 기법 연구", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 42(2), pp.131~139 (2009), 한국수자원학회
- Ichikawa, M., "A meaning of the overlapped area under probability density curves of stress and strength", Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 41, pp.203~204 (1993)[DOI]
- Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2013: The physical science basis, "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", Cambridge University Press, ~ (2013)
- Summary for policymakers. In: Climate change 2014:Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change", Cambridge University Press, ~ (2014)
- 전상민, "농업용 저수지 둑 높이기에 따른 홍수조절효과 분석", 한국농공학회논문집, 55(6), pp.57~68 (2013), 한국농공학회
- 강부식, "정량강수모의를 이용한 실시간 유출예측", 대한토목학회 논문집B, 30(6), pp.579~587 (2010), 대한토목학회
- 김진훈, "단기 예측강우를 활용한 실시간 유량 예측기법의 적용", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 38(1), pp.11~23 (2005), 한국수자원학회
- 김대하, "예보강우 시간분해를 위한 Multiplicative Cascade 모형의 적용성 평가", 한국농공학회논문집, 58(5), pp.91~99 (2016), 한국농공학회
- 이상진, "ESP와 RDAPS 수치예보를 이용한 장기유량예측", 한국수자원학회 논문집, 44(12), pp.967~974 (2011), 한국수자원학회
- Linznar, P., "Random cascade driven rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology : An evaluation of six models and a new generator", Atmospheric Research, 99, pp.563~578 (2011)[DOI]
- Mandelbrot, B., "Intermittent turbulence in self-similar cascades-divergence of high moments and dimension of carrier", Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 62(2), pp.331~358 (1974)[DOI]
- Cheongmi stream river master plan report, "Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport(MOLIT)", ~ (2011)
- Hydrological annual report in Korea, "Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs(MLTM)", ~ (2009)
- Müller, H., "Temporal rainfall disaggregation with a cascade model : From single-station disaggregation to spatial rainfall", Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 20(11), pp.04015026~ (2015)[DOI]
- Müller, H., "Temporal rainfall disaggregation using a multiplicative cascade model for spatial application in urban hydrology", Journal of Hydrology, 556, pp.847~864 (2016)[DOI]
- Yang, Y. S., "Structural reliability engineering" (1999), Seoul National University Press
- Yoon, Y. N., "Hydrology" (2007), Cheongmoongak