강우자료의 시간해상도에 따른 강우 분해 성능 평가
Performance Evaluation of Rainfall Disaggregation according to Temporal Scale of Rainfall Data
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초록
본 연구에서는 다양한 시간해상도(3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hr)를 가지는 강우자료를 1-hr 강우자료로 분해하여 강우 분해기법의성능을 평가한다. 강우 분해기법은 추계학적 점 강우 모형인 Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model(NSRPM)에서 생성된데이터베이스를 기반으로 수행된다. 기상청 울산, 창원, 부산, 밀양지점의 7월 시간강우자료를 이용하여 분석을 수행하였다. 연구결과, 강우 분해기법은 강우의 주요 통계치뿐만 아니라 공간상관성도 고려할 수 있는 뛰어난 성능을 보여주었다. 또한, 일단위 시간해상도의 미래 기후변화 시나리오가 가지는 불확실성을 간접적으로 살펴보았다. 강우 분해기법은 미래 기후변화시나리오에 적용된다면 효과적인 미래 유역관리에 도움이 되리라 기대된다.
Abstract
In this study, rainfall data with various temporal scales (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hr) are disaggregated into 1-hourly rainfall data to evaluate the performance of rainfall disaggregation technique. The rainfall disaggregation technique is based on a database generated by the stochastic point rainfall model, the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM). Performance evaluation is carried out using July rainfall data of Ulsan, Changwon, Busan and Milyang weather stations in Korea. As a result, the rainfall disaggregation technique showed excellent performance that can consider not only the major statistics of rainfall but also the spatial correlation. It also indirectly shows the uncertainty of future climate change scenarios with daily temporal scale. The rainfall disaggregation technique is expected to disaggregate the future climate change scenarios, and to be effective in the future watershed management.
참고문헌 (11)
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