Climatic Influence on the Water Requirement of Wheat-Rice Cropping System in UCC Command Area of Pakistan
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This study investigated climate change influences over crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the wheat−ricecropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) command in Punjab Province, Pakistan. PRECIS simulated delta−change climate projections under theA1B scenario were used to project future climate during two-time slices: 2030s (2021−2050) and 2060s (2051−2080) against baseline climatology(1980−2010). CROPWAT model was used to simulate future CWRs and IWRs of the crops. Projections suggested that future climate of the studyarea would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased CWRs and IWRs for boththe crops. Wheat CWR was more sensitive to climate−induced temperature variations than rice. However, projected winter/wheat seasonal rainfallincrements were satisfactorily higher to compensate for the elevated wheat CWRs; but predicted increments in summer/rice seasonal rainfalls were notenough to complement change rate of the rice CWRs. Thus, predicted wheat IWRs displayed a marginal and rice IWRs displayed a substantial rise. This suggested that future wheat production might withstand the climatic influences by end of the 2030s, but would not sustain the 2060s climaticconditions; whereas, the rice might not be able to bear the future climate−change impacts even by end of the 2030s. In conclusion, the temperatureduring the winter season and rainfall during the summer season were important climate variables controlling water requirements and crop productionin the study area.
Abstract
This study investigated climate change influences over crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the wheat−ricecropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) command in Punjab Province, Pakistan. PRECIS simulated delta−change climate projections under theA1B scenario were used to project future climate during two-time slices: 2030s (2021−2050) and 2060s (2051−2080) against baseline climatology(1980−2010). CROPWAT model was used to simulate future CWRs and IWRs of the crops. Projections suggested that future climate of the studyarea would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased CWRs and IWRs for boththe crops. Wheat CWR was more sensitive to climate−induced temperature variations than rice. However, projected winter/wheat seasonal rainfallincrements were satisfactorily higher to compensate for the elevated wheat CWRs; but predicted increments in summer/rice seasonal rainfalls were notenough to complement change rate of the rice CWRs. Thus, predicted wheat IWRs displayed a marginal and rice IWRs displayed a substantial rise. This suggested that future wheat production might withstand the climatic influences by end of the 2030s, but would not sustain the 2060s climaticconditions; whereas, the rice might not be able to bear the future climate−change impacts even by end of the 2030s. In conclusion, the temperatureduring the winter season and rainfall during the summer season were important climate variables controlling water requirements and crop productionin the study area.
참고문헌 (39)
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