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갈수기 경향성 분석을 활용한 상류 유역의 가뭄위험 변동성 분석

Analysis of Drought Risk in the Upper River Basins based on Trend Analysis Results

박지연|김동영|정일원
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society Of Agricultural Engineers)|2019.01|한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)|제61권 제1호|pp. 21-29|DOI https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2019.61.1.021

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참고문헌

키워드

trenddroughtrunoff rateDam inflow
주제분류농학

초록

This study analyzed the variability of drought risk based on trend analysis of dry-seasonal dam inflow located in upper river basins. To this, we usedareal averaged precipitation and dam inflow of three upper river dams such as Soyang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam. We employedMann-Kendall trend analysis and change point detection method to identify the significant trends and changing point in time series. Our results showedthat significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (= dam inflow/precipitation) in three-dam basins. We investigatedpotential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends using changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices. However, there wereno clear relation among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of damoperational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understanddecreasing runoff rates.

Abstract

This study analyzed the variability of drought risk based on trend analysis of dry-seasonal dam inflow located in upper river basins. To this, we usedareal averaged precipitation and dam inflow of three upper river dams such as Soyang dam, Chungju dam, and Andong dam. We employedMann-Kendall trend analysis and change point detection method to identify the significant trends and changing point in time series. Our results showedthat significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (= dam inflow/precipitation) in three-dam basins. We investigatedpotential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends using changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices. However, there wereno clear relation among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of damoperational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understanddecreasing runoff rates.

참고문헌 (40)

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