Mann-Kendall과 Spearman의 Rho 검정 방법을 이용한 경상북도 강우량의 경향성 분석
Rainfall Trends Analysis Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests - A Case Study of Gyeongsangbuk-do, Korea -
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초록
본 연구에서는 Mann-Kendall 검정과 Spearman의 Rho 검정을 사용하여 대구광역시를 포함하는 경상북도 지역의 시간에 따른 강수량 추이와 변화를 조사하였다. 본 연구는 경상북도 지역의 계절적및 연간 변동성을 포함하여 강수 변화의 개괄적인 개요를 제공하며, 낙동강 유역의 유황변동과 수자원 변동을 파악하는 데 도움이 될 수 있다. 본 연구는 12개 관측소에서 37년(1983~2019년) 동안의강우량 자료를 이용하였다. 연강우량은 울릉도에서만 통계적 유의수준을 만족하는 증가 경향을 보였으며 그 이외의 지역에서는 통계적 유의성을 확인할 수 없었다. 월강우량도 대부분 지역에서 통계적 유의수준을 만족하지 못하고, 대체적으로 6월은 감소하고 7, 8, 9월은 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 통해 강우량 자료의 장기 경향성 여부를 확인하였고, 통계적 유의성을 확보하지 못한지역에 대해서도 검정통계량을 이용하여 경향성을 조사하였다.
Abstract
Changes in rainfall will lead to changes in the amount of available water and will bring on a serious impact on human life. This research investigated rainfall variability across 12 stations in Gyeongsangbuk-do, Korea, over a 37-year study period (1983~2019). This study quantitatively presented the characteristics of rainfall by region through basic statistical rainfall analysis. Nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR) statistical tests were used to detect trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall. Through the rainfall trend analysis, it was found that a few regions satisfied statistical significance. Nevertheless, it was confirmed that the rainfall trend generally decreased in June and generally increased in July, August, and September. The performance of the MK and SR tests was consistent at the verified significance level.
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