범죄발생의 공간의존성 변화와 핫스팟 분포, 2001-2010
Changes in Spatial Dependence of Crime and Distribution of Crime Hot Spots in Korea, 2001-2010
0
조회
0
다운로드
22
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The present study aims to identify the changes in spatial dependence of crime incidence and hot spots of the crime distribution in Korea. Five major crimes (murder, robbery, rape, burglary and violence) and total crime were utilized for the analyses during the periods of 2001 to 2010. We applied two spatial indexes for the present study; Global Moran's I is used to identify the spatial dependency and Local Moran's I has been applied to find hot spot distribution of each crime. We utilized two types of statistics for the analyses: one is hot spot (total crime incidence) and the other is a standardized crime incidence (crime incidence per 10 thousand individuals) by area. We found that the spatial dependency of crime occurrence in Korea is high in both criteria. However, we found some contrary in the hot spot analysis. Hot spots derived from the total crime incidence were mainly concentrated on the Seoul Metropolitan Region, while those derived from the standardized crime incidence were clustered on some local metropolitan areas (such as Daejeon and Daegu) as well as Seoul Metropolitan Region. Based on the results, we found the following policy implication: reinforcing crime prevention measure on the hot spot areas to control crime occurrence is useful. We further suggested to construct the measures to a spatial planning schema to reduce the interregional spatial dependency of crime incidence.
Abstract
The present study aims to identify the changes in spatial dependence of crime incidence and hot spots of the crime distribution in Korea. Five major crimes (murder, robbery, rape, burglary and violence) and total crime were utilized for the analyses during the periods of 2001 to 2010. We applied two spatial indexes for the present study; Global Moran's I is used to identify the spatial dependency and Local Moran's I has been applied to find hot spot distribution of each crime. We utilized two types of statistics for the analyses: one is hot spot (total crime incidence) and the other is a standardized crime incidence (crime incidence per 10 thousand individuals) by area. We found that the spatial dependency of crime occurrence in Korea is high in both criteria. However, we found some contrary in the hot spot analysis. Hot spots derived from the total crime incidence were mainly concentrated on the Seoul Metropolitan Region, while those derived from the standardized crime incidence were clustered on some local metropolitan areas (such as Daejeon and Daegu) as well as Seoul Metropolitan Region. Based on the results, we found the following policy implication: reinforcing crime prevention measure on the hot spot areas to control crime occurrence is useful. We further suggested to construct the measures to a spatial planning schema to reduce the interregional spatial dependency of crime incidence.
참고문헌 (35)
- 김걸, "토지용도별 범죄의 시·공간적 분포패턴 사례연구", 한국도시지리학회지, 12(3), pp.83~96 (2009), 한국도시지리학회
- 김광구, "공간 자기상관의탐색과 공간회귀분석의 활용", 정책분석평가학회보, 13(1) (2003), 한국정책분석평가학회
- 김현중, "수도권 5대 범죄의 결정요인: Mixed GWR모형의 적용", 서울도시연구, 12(4), pp.137~155 (2011), 서울연구원
- 범죄 및 형사정책에 대한 법경제학적 접근(Ⅱ) : 범죄의 사회적 비용 추정, "박경래", 한국형사정책 연구원, ~ (2010)
- 손승호, "서울시 등질지역과 기능지역의 구조 분석", 대한지리학회지, 39(4), pp.562~584 (2004), 대한지리학회
- 이상일, "공간 클러스터의 범역 설정을 위한 GIS-기반 방법론 연구 -수정 AMOEBA 기법-", 대한지리학회지, 45(4), pp.502~520 (2010), 대한지리학회
- 이성우, "공간계량모형응용" (2006), 博英社
- 정경석, "시공간검정통계량을 이용한 도시범죄의 핫스팟분석", 한국지리정보학회지, 13(3), pp.14~28 (2010), 한국지리정보학회
- 정경석, "GIS와 공간통계기법을 이용한 시⋅공간적 도시범죄 패턴 및 범죄발생 영향요인 분석", 한국지리정보학회지, 12(1), pp.12~25 (2009), 한국지리정보학회
- 정진성, "지역사회 범죄연구와 가변적 공간단위의 문제(MAUP)", 경찰학연구, 12(2), pp.27~47 (2012), 경찰대학[DOI]
- 통계청, "사회조사결과" (2012)
- 허선영, "도시내 범죄발생과 범죄 두려움 위치의 공간적 차이 분석", 한국지리정보학회지, 14(4), pp.194~207 (2011), 한국지리정보학회
- 황선영, "GIS를 활용한 도시 범죄의 공간패턴분석 -서울시 성북구를 사례로-", 국토계획, 38(1), pp.53~66 (2003), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- Alex, H., "Mapping and Analysing Crime Data" (2001), Taylor and Francis
- Anselin, L., "Spatial Econometrics : Method and Models" (1988), Kluwer Academic
- Anselin, L., "Local Indicators of Spatial Association LISA", Geographical Analysis, 27(2), pp.286~306 (1995)
- Anselin, L., "Spatial Analysis of Crime", Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice, 14, pp.213~262 (2000)
- Azzalini, A., "Clustering via Nonparametric Density Estimation", Statistics and Computing, 17, pp.71~80 (2007)
- Brantingham, P. J., "Patterns in Crime" (1984), Macmillan
- Brantingham, P. J., "Mobility, Notoriety and Crime: A Study of Crime Patterns in Urban Nodal Points", Journal of Environmental Systems, 11, pp.89~99 (1982)
- Cahill, M., "Using geographically weighted regression to explore local crime patterns", Social Science Computer Review, 25(2), pp.174~193 (2007)
- Chainey, S. P., "GIS and Crime Mapping" (2005), Wiley
- Chainey, S., "The Utility of Hotspot Mapping for Predicting Spatial Patterns of Crime", Security Journal, 21, pp.4~28 (2008)
- Cohen, L. E., "Social Change and Crime Rate Trends : A Routine Activity Approach", American Sociological Review, 44, pp.588~605 (1979)
- Cornish, D., "The Reasoning Criminal : Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending" (1986), Springer-Verlag
- Crowe, T., "Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design : Applications of Architectural Design and Space Management Concepts, 2nd eds" (2000), Butterworth-Heinemann
- Goldsmith, V., "Analysing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice" (2000), Altamira Press
- Hirschfield, A., "GIS and the Analysis of Spatially Referenced Crime Data: Experiences in Merseyside, UK", International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 9(2), pp.191~220 (1995)
- Getting the Grease to the Squeak: Research Lessons for Crime Prevention, "Hough, M.", Home Office, ~, pp.Crime Prevention and Detection Paper 85 (1998)
- Ord, J. K., "Testing for Local Spatial Autocorrelation in the Presence of Global Autocorrelation", Journal of Regional Science, 41, pp.411~432 (2001)
- Osborne, D. A., "Introduction to Crime Analysis : Basic Resources for Criminal Justice Practice" (2003), Haworth Press
- Schick, W., "CompStat in the Los Angeles Police Department", Police Chief, 71(1), pp.17~23 (2004)
- Stucky, T. D., "Land Use and Violent Crime", Criminology, 47, pp.1223~1264 (2009)
- Walsh, W., "Compstat : An Analysis of an Emerging Police Paradigm", An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 24(3), pp.347~363 (2001)
- Weisheit, R. A., "Rural Crime and Rural Policing" (1994), U.S Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice