코로나19가 한국산업단지 제조업 수출에 미치는 영향: 글로벌 공급 쇼크를 중심으로
Impact of COVID-19 on Korean Industrial Complex Manufacturing Industry Exports: Focusing on Global Supply Shoc
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본 논문은 코로나19가 글로벌 공급 사슬 경로를 통해 한국의 17개 시도별 산업단지 수출에미치는 영향을 실증분석한다. 2018.1~2020.3분기 사이 국가, 일반, 농공, 도시첨단산업단지의생산, 수출, 고용, 가동업체 패널자료를 국내외 코로나확진자수 및 중간재수입 자료와 연계한다. 2018.1~2019.4분기 대비 2020.1~2020.3분기에 코로나19에 따른 국내 공급쇼크와 국외 공급쇼크가 한국산업단지 제조업의 생산 및 수출에 미치는 부정적 영향을 추정한다. 코로나19확진자수를 도구변수로 사용하여 3SLS추정법으로 실증분석한 결과, 생산의 국내 코로나탄력성과국외 코로나탄력성은 각각 -0.17, -0.22로 나타났다. 수출의 코로나19 국내공급쇼크와 국외공급쇼크 탄력성은 각각 -0.28, -0.68로 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났다. 코로나탄력성 추정치를 적용하여 17개 시도 국가산업단지 등의 2018.1~2019.4분기 대비2020.1~2020.3분기 평균 생산감소요인을 설명해본 결과, 코로나19 때문에 발생한 비중은 각각전북 75%, 울산 59%, 전남 38%, 세종(일반산업단지) 35%, 제주 13% 순으로 나타났다. 수출감소 중에서 코로나19 때문에 발생한 비중은 전남 96%, 경남 51%, 대전 38% 순이다. 코로나19 이후 발생한 국가산업단지의 생산감소와 수출감소의 코로나19 요인은 대략 평균적으로 각각44%, 63%로 설명된다.
Abstract
Purpose : This paper empirically analyzes the impact of COVID-19’s global supply shock on production and exports of 17 regional industrial complexes in Korea. Research design, data, methodology : Linking panel data of production, export, employment, and operating firms of the national, general, agricultural and urban high-tech industrial complexes of Korea with home and foreign COVID-19 confirmed cases and intermediate imports, this paper applies 3SLS and estimates the negative impact of the domestic supply shock and the overseas supply shock caused by COVID-19 on the production and exports of the Korean industrial complex manufacturing industry in the 2020.1~2020.3 quarters compared to the 2018.1~2019.4 quarters. Results : Using the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases as an instrumental variable, the domestic COVID-19 elasticity and the overseas COVID-19 elasticity of production are estimated as -0.17 and -0.22, respectively. COVID-19 domestic supply shock and overseas supply shock elasticity of exports are estimated respectively as -0.28 and -0.68. Conclusions : Among the reduction factors of industrial complex’s production, the causal share of COVID-19 in Jeonbuk, Ulsan, Jeonnam, Sejong (general industrial complex), and Jeju are estimated as 75%, 59%, 38%, 35%, and 13% respectively. Among the reduction factors of exports, the causal share of COVID-19 in Jeonnam, Gyeongnam and Daejeon are estimated as 96%, 51%, and 38% respectively. COVID-19 shares of the production and exports reduction factors in Korean national industrial complexes are respectively estimated as on average about 44% and 63%.
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