글로벌 공급망의 충격과 수입다각화: 코로나-19를 중심으로
Diversity of Imports Alleviate the Negative Supply Shocks of Covid-19
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본 논문은 코로나19와 같은 예기치 않은 외부 충격으로 인하여 글로벌 공급망이 타격받았을 경우 중간재 부품수입 다각화를 통하여 한 국가가 받는 충격을 줄일 수 있는지에 대한 실증분석을 다루고 있다. 이를 위하여 2020년 1월부터 12월까지 28개 수출국에 대하여 21개 제조업의 월별 수출입 데이터를 사용하여 국가별, 산업별로 중간재 부품수입 다각화 지표를 구한 후 코로나-19로 인한 공급충격에 대해서 중간재 수입의 다각화 정도가 수출에 미치는 영향을 PPML 추정방법을 통하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 중간재 부품수입의 다각화가 이루어진 산업일수록 코로나19로 인한 공급충격이 완화되어 수출의 감소가 크지 않음을 확인하였다. 이는 수입거래처를 다각화하는 것이 비용측면에서는 비록 비효율적일 수 있지만 예상치 못한 글로벌생산망에서 발생할 수 있는 충격을 최소화하기 위해서는 특정 국가에 대한 의존도를 낮추고 여러 국가와의 거래를 확장시키는 방식의 글로벌 가치사슬 재편의 필요성을 제시한다.
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates whether import diversification of inputs mitigate the negative supply shock of COVID-19 by enabling a rapid response to changes in the global supply chain. In order to measure the supply shock by COVID-19, we use work mobility data, which recorded the degree of closure of production facilities in the country. Then, using monthly export data and the import diversification of inputs index for 21 manufacturing industries in 28 countries, we analyze whether the import diversification of inputs mitigate the negative supply shocks of COVD-19 during the period from January to December 2020. After absorbing the demand shocks from import countries through fixed effects, we estimate the gravity equation by using PPML method. Our empirical results show that import diversification of inputs play a significant role in mitigating the supply shock of COVID-19 and the mitigating effects is larger during the early period of COVID-19.
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