인도네시아 2018: 수하르토 퇴진 후 20년, 일상화된 선거민주주의와 경제발전
Indonesia 2018: 20 Years After the Fall of Suharto, Routinization of Electoral Democracy and Economic Growth
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2019년 대선과 총선을 목전에 둔 2018년은 정치적 변동을 야기할 잠재력을 가진 해였다. 이러한 예상과 달리 인도네시아 정치에서는 뚜렷한 변화의 양상 이 드러나지 않았고, 기존의 정치 행위자들이 기존의 환경에서 기존의 방식에 맞추어 행동하는 모습이 주로 나타났다. 대통령 선거 레이스를 시작한 조코위 대통령은 엔우와 이슬람지도자협의회의 의장을 부통령 후보로, 그에 대항하 는 프라보오 후보는 억만장자 정치신인을 부통령 후보로 지명했다. 두 부통령 후보는 이슬람과 금권이라는 인도네시아 정치의 핵심 요소가 여전히 유효하 게 작동하고 있음을 상징적으로 보여주었다. 2018년 인도네시아 경제는 루피아 환율의 급격한 평가절하에 직면했다. 미 연준의기준금리인상, 미중무역분쟁, 신흥국경제불안등으로촉발된루피 아 약세에 대응하기 위해 중앙은행과 정부가 다각적인 대응책을 내놓았지만 마지노선이라 여겨지던 15,000루피아 선이 붕괴된 후 연말이 되어서야 안정세 를 되찾을 수 있었다. 환율 급락 속에서도 경제 성장세와 인플레이션이 유지됨 으로써 경제 위기 국면이 진정될 수 있었다. 2018년 인도네시아 사회는 지진과 쓰나미로 인해 자연재해 피해가 집계된 이래가장큰규모의희생자가발생했고, 토바호수여객선전복과라이온에어여 객기 추락 사건과 같은 대형 사고에 직면했다. 그러나 자연재해나 경제 불안이 정치적 문제로 전환되어 이슈화되지는 않았으며, 이로 인해 조코위 대통령과 집권 여당 연합은 현직 효과가 안정적으로 작동하는 상황에서 2019년 대선과 총선을 맞이할 수 있었다.
Abstract
In 2018, Indonesia headed to the upcoming 2019 presidential and general elections, which had the potential to bring about drastic political transformations. In contrast to this expectation, Indonesian politics has been largely dominated by the existing political actors who acted in accordance with routine norms in their routinized environment, rather than undergoing discernable changes. President Jokowi nominated the chairperson of both NU and MUI as the vice presidential candidate, while his challenger, Prabowo, designated a billionaire novice as his running mate. The two vice presidential candidates have symbolically demonstrated that the key elements of Indonesian politics, Islam and money, are still working effectively. In 2018, the Indonesian economy faced a sharp devaluation of the rupiah exchange rate. Although the central bank and the government have worked on various countermeasures to cope with the weakening of the rupiah triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, US-China trade disputes, and economic unrest in emerging economies, it was at the end of the year only after the collapse of the Rp. 15,000 Maginot Line when the economy was able to regain stability. Despite the sharp depreciation of the rupiah, stable economic growth and inflation have helped calm deep anxiety about economic crisis. In 2018, the Indonesian society witnessed frequent natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunami. The largest number of casualties from natural disasters was recorded since the beginning of the official counting of casualties. Large-scale accidents such as the overthrow of the Toba Lake passenger ship and the crash of the Lion Air plane were also reported. However, the economic, social and natural disasters have not been turned into serious political issues. This allowed President Jokowi and the ruling party to prepare the 2019 elections in a relatively favorable situation.
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