미래현금흐름예측능력에 나타난 과세소득의 정보효과
The Information Effects of the Taxable Income on the Predictability of Future Cash Flows
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현재까지 기업의 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이에 포함된 정보효과에 대한 연구들은 다양하게 진행되어 왔으나 과세소득의 정보효과에 대한 연구는 아직 미흡한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 기업의 과세소득의 정보효과가 당해이익의 미래현금흐름예측능력에 미치는 영향을 살펴보는데 그 목적이 있다. 구체적으로, 첫째, 이익조정에 의한 회계이익과 과세소득의 양의 차이가 낮은 이익의 질을 신호하는 정보를 포함하고 있다면 당해이익이 미래현금흐름을 예측하는 능력이 떨어질 것으로 예상하며 둘째, 조세전략에 의한 회계이익과 과세소득의 양의 차이는 차기의 반전효과로 인해 현금흐름의 감소를 유발하기 때문에 당해 이익의 미래현금흐름의 예측능력을 감소시킬 것으로 예상하여 이를 검증하였다. 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이는 박승식외(2006)의 계산방법을 이용하여 산출하였으며 조세전략을 측정하기 위해 Dyreng et al.(2008), 심충진(2011), 그리고 Wilkie and Limberg(1993)에서 제시한 측정치를 각각 순서대로 이용하였다. 분석결과, 예측한 대로 이익조정을 수반한 회계이익과 과세소득의 양(＋)의 차이는 당해이익의 미래현금흐름 예측능력을 저하시키는 것으로 나타났으며 조세전략을 수반한 회계이익과 과세소득의 양의 차이는 당해이익의 미래현금흐름의 예측능력도 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 신용분석가들이나 재무분석가들이 회계이익을 분석함에 있어 과세소득의 추가적인 정보효과를 제공함으로써 그들로 하여금 정보이용자들에게 정확한 정보를 제공하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.
Abstract
Various prior researches investigate the information content of book－tax differences but the concerns about information effects of taxable income are still limited. Accordingly, in this paper, we focus on analyzing the information effects of the taxable income on predictability of future cash flows. In details, we form the first hypothesis that the positive book－tax differences that involve earnings management will reduce predictability of current earnings for future cash flows and the second is that positive book－tax differences that involve tax planning will reduce predictability of current earnings for future cash flows to take empirically analysis. To measure book－tax differences, we use the method of Park Seung－Sick et al.(2006). And we base on Dyreng et al.(2008), Shim Chung－Jin(2011), Wilkie and Limberg(1993) to measure Cash effective tax rates, Expense effective tax rates and Tax subsidy on equity, respectively as proxies of tax planning. The earnings management measure is drawn from modified－Jones model(1995) and Kothari model (1995). The sample consists of non－baking firms(1,4439 firm－years) with December fiscal year listed in Korean Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2009. The empirical results are consistent with hypothesis. First, manager adjusts earnings through discretion accruals for individual incentives and this causes positive book－tax differences which presents low earnings quality. According to this, predictability of current earnings for future earnings is reduced. Second, in the case of manager uses tax planning for decreasing taxable income, current cash flows may be increased relatively to diminished amounts of tax burden. However, because book－tax temporary differences which arise from tax planning cause reversal effects in the next year, so this leads to a decline in cash flows. Alike, predictability of current earnings for future earnings is reduced. Our paper contributes to analysts to consider incremental information effects of taxable income when they analyze accounting earning for providing more exactly accounting information.
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