혼합로짓 모형을 이용한 여행자의 서울-제주 노선 교통수단 선택에 관한 연구

Abstract

Amid the competition between high speed rail and air transport has been getting fiercer in short-haul travel market less than 1,000 km in many countries around the world, the number of air transport passengers in Seoul-Daegu and Seoul-Busan routes has significantly decreased since the launch of KTX in Korea in 2004. As a feasibility study on the plan to connect Jeju Island and other parts of Korea through undersea tunnel was carried out under such competition, this study analyzed travelers’ transport mode choice behavior under the assumption that high speed rail newly enters into the market besides major airlines and low-cost carriers. For Stated Preference research, in order to describe travelers’ transport mode choice behavior closer to reality, this study derived potential new variables, safety and availability of duty free shopping, among variety of variables seemed to affect increase in passengers of low-cost carriers in Seoul-Jeju route using association analysis and analytic hierarchical process (AHP) and reflected those to Mixed Logit model. As a result of analysis of models with the addition of safety and availability of duty free shopping, Value of Time (VOT) of business travelers was estimated KRW 2,053 and KRW 3,090 higher than that of leisure travelers, respectively. It is similar to results of previous studies. When it comes to fare substitution rate of new variables, it is estimated that business and leisure travelers are willing to pay additional fare of KRW 5,335 and 2,897 for safety and KRW 3,147 and KRW 3,477 for duty-free shopping availability, respectively. It confirms that potential new variables affect travelers’ choice of transport mode through fare substitution rate. Moreover, Mixed Logit model is applied in the study of air transport mode choice for the first time. The result of interpretation of distribution value of far and travel time among explanatory variables of the model found prestige effect of airline passengers and heterogeneity in transport mode choice which were unidentified by existing logit model. The result of this study can be used in prediction of transport mode choice behavior of airline passengers if new transport mode is introduced in inland and islands of Korea where air transport is unavailable, and establishment of more realistic model through selecting and applying potential new variables which reflect market environment. In addition, this study also can be preliminary data for improving and maintaining competitiveness of air transport such as development of new route, market analysis and building business strategies by airlines as well as in the case that building of high speed railway linking Seoul and Jeju is carried forward.