서울아파트 가격이 6대 광역시 아파트가격에 미치는 영향

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of the apartment transaction prices of the Seoul Metropolitan area on the apartment transaction prices of other Metropolitan City areas such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Daejeon, Gwangju and Ulsan. Unit root test was performed to check the stability of the serial data of apartment prices and cointegration test was used to identify the long-term equilibrium relation of the time-series variables. Since more than three cointegration vectors were found in the tests, a VECM model was applied for the study.The Granger causality test showed that the apartment prices of the Seoul area caused the fluctuation of the apartment prices of other areas stronger than the other way around. The impact response function showed that a 1 percent rise of the apartment price of Seoul area affected the apartment prices of other areas in a statistically significant way and the effect was strong in the order of Incheon(0.0172%), Busan(0.0165%), Daegu (0.0139%%), Daejeon(0.0121%), Ulsan(0.0078%), Gwangju (0.0038%%) in the span of seven to ten months.