백두산 화산재해 시나리오에 따른 강원지역 농작물 피해의 경제적 파급효과 추정
Estimation of Economic Spillover Effects of Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province Based on the Damage Scenario of Mt. Baekdu Volcano Eruption
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In this study, we estimated direct and indirect economic losses due to the volcanic ash, when Mt. Baekdu volcano erupts, especially of the agricultural sector of Gangwon, Korea. These two economic losses were calculated by using fragility function model and Input-output analysis model, respectively. From the results of calculation, we found that if volcanic ash is accumulated 3.115mm on average, the amount of direct losses of Gangwon in 2010 runs 245.9 billion wons and the damage ratio is about 20.14%. We also found that the amount of indirect losses, which is expected to be caused on the production, import, and added value of whole industry sectors, is 383.1 billion wons. And it’s 1.56 times larger than the amount of direct losses. The total amount of economic damage is 629.0 billion wons
Abstract
In this study, we estimated direct and indirect economic losses due to the volcanic ash, when Mt. Baekdu volcano erupts, especially of the agricultural sector of Gangwon, Korea. These two economic losses were calculated by using fragility function model and Input-output analysis model, respectively. From the results of calculation, we found that if volcanic ash is accumulated 3.115mm on average, the amount of direct losses of Gangwon in 2010 runs 245.9 billion wons and the damage ratio is about 20.14%. We also found that the amount of indirect losses, which is expected to be caused on the production, import, and added value of whole industry sectors, is 383.1 billion wons. And it’s 1.56 times larger than the amount of direct losses. The total amount of economic damage is 629.0 billion wons
참고문헌 (28)
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