화산재 퇴적으로 인한 국내 농작물의 손실 평가
Loss Assessment of Agricultural Crops Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards
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본 연구에서는 노지작물과 시설작물에 대하여 화산재 퇴적으로 인한 취약도를 개발하고, 화산재 확산 시나리오를 기초로 농작물의 생산량 손실을 평가하였다. 노지작물에 대한 화산재 취약도는 2006년 인도네시아 머라피(Merapi) 화산분화 시 관측된 농작물의 피해영향 자료에 기초하여 평가되었으며, 시설작물에 대한 화산재 취약도는 신뢰도 지수 기반의 FOSM(first-order second-moment) 기법을 이용하여 농림축산식품부에서 제공한 내재해형 비닐하우스에 대하여 평가되었다. 또한, 화산재 확산 및 퇴적두께를 예측할 수 있는 FALL3D 모델과 WRF(weather research and forecasting) 모델을 연계하여 화산재 확산 시나리오를 모의하였다. 본 연구에서는 이들 화산재 취약도와 화산재 퇴적두께 모의 결과를 기초로 하여 충청남도 지역에서 재배되는 수박과 딸기에 대한 화산재 퇴적에 따른 생산량 손실을 추정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 화산재 취약도 및 손실 평가 알고리즘은 추후 한반도 주변 화산분화 시 피해예측 및 경감을 위하여 사용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
This paper presents production loss assessment of agricultural crops subjected to volcanic ash fall hazards. Production loss of agricultural crops was assessed by using the volcanic ash fragility and scenario of volcanic ash deposition. In order to assess volcanic ash fragility, agricultural crops were classified as ones in outdoor and greenhouse farming. The volcanic ash fragility of crops in outdoor farming was assessed by using damage data observed from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia. The volcanic ash fragility of crops in greenhouse farming was assessed by using the FOSM (first-order second-moment) method based on reliability index for the multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouse provided by MIFAFF (Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries). Scenarios of volcanic ash deposition were obtained by using the volcanic ash dispersion made by the FALL3D and WRF (weather research and forecasting) models. In this study, production losses of watermelon and strawberry of fruiting crops in Chungcheongnamdo were estimated based on volcanic ash fragility and scenarios of volcanic ash deposition. The volcanic ash fragility and loss estimation algorithms developed in this study can be used to evaluate damage prediction and mitigation for volcanic eruptions around the South Korea.
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