Analysis of Spillover Effects Due to the Failure of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Prior to COVID19
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This study estimated the opportunity cost for North Korea resulting from the economic impact of inter-Korean economic cooperation that had been planned in the past but was hindered by the deterioration of inter-Korean relations. To analyze past inter-Korean economic cooperation, we estimated North Korea's input-output table in 2018 using the GRAS method and compared the lost economic spillover effects caused by the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Mount Kumgang Tourism, and Socio-Indirect Capital Investment projects with North Korea's industrial interrelation structure. Regarding the economic spillover effects of the three projects, the production-induced effect of the Kaesong Industrial Complex was the highest at approximately 2.541 billion US dollars, followed by socio-indirect capital investment at approximately 2.333 billion US dollars, and Mount Kumgang Tourism at approximately 2.024 billion US dollars. North Korea still retains the highest production-induced effect in the manufacturing sector, indicating that the operations of the Kaesong Industrial Complex had the most significant effect. The input-output analysis table used in this study is useful for analyzing policy effects related to the North Korean economy and can be utilized in the future.
Abstract
This study estimated the opportunity cost for North Korea resulting from the economic impact of inter-Korean economic cooperation that had been planned in the past but was hindered by the deterioration of inter-Korean relations. To analyze past inter-Korean economic cooperation, we estimated North Korea's input-output table in 2018 using the GRAS method and compared the lost economic spillover effects caused by the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Mount Kumgang Tourism, and Socio-Indirect Capital Investment projects with North Korea's industrial interrelation structure. Regarding the economic spillover effects of the three projects, the production-induced effect of the Kaesong Industrial Complex was the highest at approximately 2.541 billion US dollars, followed by socio-indirect capital investment at approximately 2.333 billion US dollars, and Mount Kumgang Tourism at approximately 2.024 billion US dollars. North Korea still retains the highest production-induced effect in the manufacturing sector, indicating that the operations of the Kaesong Industrial Complex had the most significant effect. The input-output analysis table used in this study is useful for analyzing policy effects related to the North Korean economy and can be utilized in the future.
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