한반도 극한 기온의 선형 및 비선형 변화 경향
Linear and Nonlinear Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Korea
0
조회
0
다운로드
11
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMAstations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles of daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) byusing quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of Tmax and Tminare generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the 5th percentile temperature(cold extreme) is stronger than that of the 95th percentile temperature (warm extreme)in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting,show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increaseduntil 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the 95th and50th percentiles of summer Tmin that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasingtrend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warminghiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attributionof nonlinear temperature trends challenging.
Abstract
This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMAstations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles of daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) byusing quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of Tmax and Tminare generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the 5th percentile temperature(cold extreme) is stronger than that of the 95th percentile temperature (warm extreme)in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting,show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increaseduntil 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the 95th and50th percentiles of summer Tmin that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasingtrend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warminghiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attributionof nonlinear temperature trends challenging.
참고문헌 (15)
- Bailing, R. C., "Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in gridded temperature time series", Climate Res., 9, pp.175~181 (1998)
- Franzke, C., "Nonlinear trends, long-range dependence, and climate noise properties of surface temperature", J. Climate, 25, pp.4172~4183 (2012)
- Franzke, C., "A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series", Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, pp.1392~1395 (2013)
- 허인혜, "우리나라의 일교차 변화에 관한 연구", 한국지역지리학회지, 17(2), pp.167~180 (2011), 한국지역지리학회
- Kirtman, B., "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (2013), Cambridge University Press
- Koenker, R., "Quantile regression", J. Econ. Perspect., 15, pp.143~156 (2001)
- 2013 Abnormal Climate Report, "Korea Meteorological Administation", KMA, 163~
- 구교숙, "최고, 최저기온을 이용한 우리나라 기온변화에서의 도시화효과 분석", 대기, 17(2), pp.185~193 (2007), 한국기상학회
- Kosaka, Y., "Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling", Nature, 501, pp.403~407 (2013)
- 이경미, "Analysis of Changes in Extreme Temperatures Using Quantile Regression", 한국기상학회지, 49(3), pp.313~323 (2013), 한국기상학회
- 이경미, "한국에서 평균기온 및 극한기온의 변화시점 분석", 대한지리학회지, 46(5), pp.583~596 (2011), 대한지리학회
- Lee, M.-I., "Temperature variability and warming trend in Korea associated with global warming", J. Korean Meteor. Soc., 33, pp.429~443 (1997)
- 이승호, "한국의 도시화에 의한 극한기온의 변화", 대한지리학회지, 46(3), pp.257~276 (2011), 대한지리학회
- 박우선, "우리나라에서 최근 50년 (1958-2007)간 열대야 발생 특성 및 변화 경향", 대기, 21(4), pp.361~371 (2011), 한국기상학회
- Trenberth, K. E., "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (2007), Cambridge University Press