QBO와 한반도 지상기온 간의 관계
Relationship between the QBO and Surface Air Temperature in the Korean Peninsula
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The relationship between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Korean Peninsula is investigated for the period of 1979~2019. The QBO shows a statistically significant causal relationship with the Korean SAT in early spring when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)’s effect is relatively weak. In particular, when the QBO wind at 70 hPa is westerly, the Korean SAT becomes colder than normal in March. This relationship in March, which is statistically significant, is valid not only for March QBO but also for February QBO, indicating that the QBO is leading the Korean SAT. The Granger causality test indeed shows a causal relationship between February QBO and March Korean SAT. The QBO-Korean SAT relationship is more pronounced in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. As the QBO-related circulation anomalies are evident in the North Pacific and the eastern Eurasia, they induce the horizontal temperature advection to the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. This result suggests that the QBO could be useful for improving seasonal prediction of the Korean SAT in March.
Abstract
The relationship between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the surface air temperature (SAT) in the Korean Peninsula is investigated for the period of 1979~2019. The QBO shows a statistically significant causal relationship with the Korean SAT in early spring when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)’s effect is relatively weak. In particular, when the QBO wind at 70 hPa is westerly, the Korean SAT becomes colder than normal in March. This relationship in March, which is statistically significant, is valid not only for March QBO but also for February QBO, indicating that the QBO is leading the Korean SAT. The Granger causality test indeed shows a causal relationship between February QBO and March Korean SAT. The QBO-Korean SAT relationship is more pronounced in the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. As the QBO-related circulation anomalies are evident in the North Pacific and the eastern Eurasia, they induce the horizontal temperature advection to the southeastern part of the Korean Peninsula. This result suggests that the QBO could be useful for improving seasonal prediction of the Korean SAT in March.
참고문헌 (36)
- Akaike, H., "A new look at the statistical model identification", IEEE T. Automat. Contr, 19, pp.716~723 (1974)
- Baldwin, M. P., "The quasi-biennial oscillation", Rev. Geophys, 39, pp.179~229 (2001)
- Elizabeth A. Barnes, "Seasonal Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Jet Streams to Arctic Temperatures on Subseasonal Time Scales", Journal of Climate, 30(24), pp.10117~10137 (2017), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Burnham, K. P., "Multimodel inference : understanding AIC and BIC in model selection", Sociol. Method. Res, 33, pp.261~304 (2004)
- Collimore, C. C., "On the relationship between the QBO and tropical deep convection", J. Climate, 16, pp.2552~2568 (2003)
- Ding, M., Y., "Handbook of time series analysis: Recent Theoretical Developments and Applications", pp.437~460 (2006), Wiley-VCH
- Chaim I. Garfinkel, "The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part I: Simplified Dry GCMs", Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68(6), pp.1273~1289 (2011), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Chaim I. Garfinkel, "The Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Troposphere in Winter in a Hierarchy of Models. Part II: Perpetual Winter WACCM Runs", Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 68(9), pp.2026~2041 (2011), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Geweke, J. F., "Measures of conditional linear dependence and feedback between time series", J. Am. Stat. Assoc, 79, pp.907~915 (1984)
- Granger, C. W. J., "Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods", Econometrica, 37, pp.424~438 (1969)
- Lesley J. Gray, "Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18(11), pp.8227~8247 (2018), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
- Guo, S., "Partial Granger causality—eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables", J. Neurosci. Methods, 172, pp.79~93 (2008)
- 한보름, "한반도 겨울철 기온의 월별 통계 예측 모형 구축 및 검증", 대기, 28(2), pp.153~162 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Holton, J. R., "The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb", J. Atmos. Sci, 37, pp.2200~2208 (1980)
- Holton, J. R., "The quasi-biennial oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere", J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 60, pp.140~148 (1982)
- Lon L. Hood, "Stratospheric Influences on the MJO-Induced Rossby Wave Train: Effects on Intraseasonal Climate", Journal of Climate, 33(1), pp.365~389 (2020), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Hsiao, C., "Autoregressive modelling and moneyincome causality detection", J. Monetary Econ, 7, pp.85~106 (1981)
- Boyin Huang, "Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons", Journal of Climate, 30(20), pp.8179~8205 (2017), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Shinya KOBAYASHI, "The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics", Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 93(1), pp.5~48 (2015), Meteorological Society of Japan[DOI]
- Jong-Seong Kug, "Statistical Relationship between Two Types of El Niño Events and Climate Variation over the Korean Peninsula", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 46(3), pp.467~747 (2010), 한국기상학회
- Jai Hong Lee, "ENSO impacts on temperature over South Korea", International Journal of Climatology, 36(11), pp.3651~3663 (2016), Wiley[DOI]
- 이진행, "Differences in the Tropical Convective Activities at the Opposite Phases of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 55(3), pp.317~336 (2019), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Xiuming Li, "Dynamic features of China's photovoltaic listed companies in different periods: Based on partial Granger causality network", Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 10(4), pp.045904~ (2018), AIP Publishing[DOI]
- Xiao Luo, "The Linkage between Upper-Level Jet Streams over East Asia and East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability", Journal of Climate, 28(22), pp.9013~9028 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Tianjiao Ma, "The observed influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in the lower equatorial stratosphere on the East Asian winter monsoon during early boreal winter", International Journal of Climatology, 41(14), pp.6254~6269 (2021), Wiley[DOI]
- Madden, R. A., "Detection of a 40~50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific", J. Atmos. Sci, 28, pp.702~708 (1971)
- McGraw M. C., "Memory matters : A case for Granger causality in climate variability studies", J. Climate, 31, pp.3289~3300 (2018)[DOI]
- 박창현, "엘니뇨-남방진동과 한반도 겨울철 기후변동성의 그랜저 인과관계 검정", 한국기후변화학회지, 9(2), pp.171~179 (2018), 한국기후변화학회[DOI]
- Jian Rao, "How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5", 6 Models?, 2020, pp.33(20), 8975~8996[DOI]
- Ruti, P. M., "Does the subtropical jet catalyze the midlatitude atmospheric regimes?", Geophys. Res. Lett, 33, pp.L06814~ (2006)
- Jihoon Seo, "Relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and the spring rainfall in the western North Pacific", Geophysical Research Letters, 40(22), pp.5949~5953 (2013), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Simpson, I. R., "The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations", J. Atmos. Sci, 66, pp.1347~1365 (2009)
- Seok-Woo Son, "Stratospheric Control of the Madden–Julian Oscillation", Journal of Climate, 30(6), pp.1909~1922 (2017), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Thompson, D. W. J., "Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather : Implications for prediction", J. Climate, 15, pp.1421~1428 (2002)
- Wang, W., "The relation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and SSTs in the North Atlantic basin", J. Climate, 17, pp.4752~4759 (2004)
- Vahab Youssofzadeh, "Temporal Information of Directed Causal Connectivity in Multi-Trial ERP Data using Partial Granger Causality", Neuroinformatics, 14(1), pp.99~120 (2015), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]