Seasonal Prediction of Korean Surface Temperature in July and February Based on Arctic Sea Ice Reduction
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초록
We examined potential seasonal prediction of the Korean surface temperature usingthe relationships between the Arctic Sea Ice Area (SIA) in autumn and the temperature in thefollowing July and February at 850 hPa in East Asia (EA). The Surface Air Temperature (SAT)over Korea shows a similar relationship to that for EA. Since 2007, reduction of autumn SIAhas been followed by warming in Korea in July. The regional distribution shows strong correlationsin the southern and eastern coastal areas of Korea. The correlations in the sea surfacetemperature shows the maximum values in July around the Korean Peninsula, consistent withthe coastal regions in which the maximum correlations in the Korean SAT are seen. InFebruary, the response of the SAT to the SIA is the opposite of that for the July temperature. The autumn sea ice reduction is followed by cooling over Korea in February, although the magnitudeis small. Cooling in the Korean Peninsula in February may be related to planetarywave-like features. Examining the autumn Arctic sea ice variation would be helpful for seasonalprediction of the Korean surface temperature, mostly in July and somewhat in February. Particularly in July, the regression line would be useful as supplementary information for seasonaltemperature prediction.
Abstract
We examined potential seasonal prediction of the Korean surface temperature usingthe relationships between the Arctic Sea Ice Area (SIA) in autumn and the temperature in thefollowing July and February at 850 hPa in East Asia (EA). The Surface Air Temperature (SAT)over Korea shows a similar relationship to that for EA. Since 2007, reduction of autumn SIAhas been followed by warming in Korea in July. The regional distribution shows strong correlationsin the southern and eastern coastal areas of Korea. The correlations in the sea surfacetemperature shows the maximum values in July around the Korean Peninsula, consistent withthe coastal regions in which the maximum correlations in the Korean SAT are seen. InFebruary, the response of the SAT to the SIA is the opposite of that for the July temperature. The autumn sea ice reduction is followed by cooling over Korea in February, although the magnitudeis small. Cooling in the Korean Peninsula in February may be related to planetarywave-like features. Examining the autumn Arctic sea ice variation would be helpful for seasonalprediction of the Korean surface temperature, mostly in July and somewhat in February. Particularly in July, the regression line would be useful as supplementary information for seasonaltemperature prediction.
참고문헌 (29)
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