2024년 여름철 고층집중관측자료 영향평가

Abstract

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has been conducting Intensive Observations Periods (IOP) since 2020, to monitor and improve predictability of severe weather phenomenon that flows in from the West Sea and Gyeonggi Bay during the summer, which significantly impact the Seoul metropolitan area. During the summer of 2024, KMA carried out intensive observations four times using radiosonde deployed from a weather ship (Gisang1ho), an aircraft (Naraho) and vehicles over 10-day periods. The IOP data was provided to weather forecasters in real-time, helping them to quickly analyze hazard weather, and assimilated in operational NWP models. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of IOP data through Observing System Experiment (OSE) and Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (EFSO) analysis using the KIM (Korean Integrated Model). The predictability of KIM for lower-level temperature in Asia region showed significant improvement. The IOP data also improved the accuracy of precipitation, maximum temperature and typhoon forecasting. EFSO-based assessment for 1st period (24 June~3 July) revealed that the IOP data from Anmyeondo radiosonde (vehicle) had the most positive impact on improving the predictability of temperature and wind in KIM. While, dropsonde data of aircraft contributed most significantly to humidity prediction. The IOP is planned to be carried out until 2026, and therefore, the impact assessment of upperair intensive observation data will be continuously conducted using OSE and EFSO. Long-term impact assessment of these observations is expected to provide valuable insights for designing an optimal observation network in the future.