대기경계층 및 대류 모수화 방안에 따른 2022년 동아시아 여름 몬순 재현성 평가

Abstract

Accurate simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) remains challenging due to complex atmospheric and oceanic interactions. This study evaluates how the differences in Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL)-Cumulus Parameterization Schemes (CPS), along with the different horizontal resolutions, influence the reproducibility of EASM precipitation in 2022. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we conducted simulations over the CORDEX (COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment)-East Asia domain at 12 km and nested 4 km resolutions, testing four PBL-CPS combinations. Comparisons with satellite and ground observations indicate that MSKF(Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch)-based schemes provide more stable and accurate precipitation simulations than KSAS(KIM Simplified Arakawa-Schubert)-based schemes. High-resolution runs capture local terrain and convective processes more realistically, though certain PBLCPS pairings, notably ACM2(Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2)_KSAS, overestimate convection at low latitudes. In contrast, MSKF-based combinations show reduced sensitivity to resolution and better representation of monsoon frontal progression. These results underscore the importance of choosing appropriate parameterizations and resolutions for improving EASM precipitation forecasts, offering guidance for future model refinements and enhanced reliability in a changing climate.