SFAS No. 131하에서 분기별 사업부문정보공시와 재무분석가의 이익예측 오차
Analysts' Earnings Forecast Error under SFAS No. 131's Interim Segment Reporting Requirement
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초록
본 연구는 미국의 SFAS No. 131하에서의 분기별 사업부문정보공시가 자본시장에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. Barron and Kile (1999)의 연구를 따라 재무분석가의 연간 및 분기 이익예측치의 분산도 및 오차를 재무분석가의 속성으로 사용하였다. 실증검증 결과, 재무제표 이용자의 주장과는 달리 새로운 분기별 사업부문정보공시는 재무분석가의 속성을 향상시키지는 못하는 것을 나타났다. 즉, 분기별 사업부문정보 자율공시기업의 경우 SFAS No. 131 도입이후 재무분석가의 이익예측 오차가 감소하는 것을 발견하였다. 하지만, 사전기대(ex ante)한 바와 다르게 분기별 사업부문정보 공시를 자율적으로 하지 않는 기업에 대한 재무분석가의 이익예측치 분산도 및 오차가 자율공시기업에 비하여 SFAS No. 131 도입이전 및 이후 모두에서 적은 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 본 연구의 결과는 미국 데이터를 이용한 결과이지만 상대적으로 사업부문정보공시에 대한 연구가 미흡한 우리나라의 사업부문정보공시와 관련하여 제시하는 바가 크다 할 것이다.
Abstract
This study empirically investigates the market reaction to the SFAS No. 131 interim period financial report. Following Barron and Kile (1999), I use the forecast dispersion and error in analysts’ earnings forecasts as properties of analysts’ annual and quarterly earnings forecasts. My study reports that the SFAS No. 131 interim period financial report is not accompanied by the significant market reaction. Unlike financial statement users’ contention, my study shows that the new requirements of interim segment reporting do not improve properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. With the relatively smaller sample size of the nondiscloser sample (n=22 for annual earnings forecasts), the power of the test results is very low. And maybe financial analysts need some time to digest the new information from the mandated requirements of interim segment reporting and reflect their understanding in their earnings forecasts. To provide more unambiguous conclusions, more powerful tests are required.
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