Analyzing the Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth : The Case of Sub-Saharan African Countries
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This study examines the link between trade and economic growth in eight Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, using data for the 1961–2010 period. We analyze the corresponding causal relationship using the augmented Cobb–Douglas production function and performing the Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model. The empirical results indicate that this causal relationship differs across the countries. Specifically, a long-run causal relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth is apparent in the case of Congo, Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. In addition, the Granger causality test results for Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Senegal indicate support for the export-led growth hypothesis, while those for Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Zambia, for the import-led growth hypothesis. Moreover, the simulation result using the generalized impulse response function demonstrates that the GDP positively responds to a sudden favorable macroeconomic shock through exports and imports in Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa. Overall, these results imply that not only exports, but also imports could play a significant role in stimulating economic growth in SSA countries.
Abstract
This study examines the link between trade and economic growth in eight Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, using data for the 1961–2010 period. We analyze the corresponding causal relationship using the augmented Cobb–Douglas production function and performing the Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model. The empirical results indicate that this causal relationship differs across the countries. Specifically, a long-run causal relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth is apparent in the case of Congo, Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia. In addition, the Granger causality test results for Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Senegal indicate support for the export-led growth hypothesis, while those for Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Zambia, for the import-led growth hypothesis. Moreover, the simulation result using the generalized impulse response function demonstrates that the GDP positively responds to a sudden favorable macroeconomic shock through exports and imports in Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Africa. Overall, these results imply that not only exports, but also imports could play a significant role in stimulating economic growth in SSA countries.
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