REC가격변동이 태양광투자에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석
Effect of the REC Price Volatility on the PV System Installation by Private Participants: Empirical Test on a Korea Case under the RPS System
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After implementing the RPS in 2012, independent PV memberships who participate in the REC markets have grown 19times within 4 years. On the other hand, the increase in capacity differ with times, though the long-term trend is on the rise. This paperexamines whether and how much the investments in the PV system by private investors are affected by past REC prices and the pricevolatility that represents market risk. This paper shows that PV capacity investments are inversely affected by the past price and thevolatility with the statistical significance for two dataset, inland and Cheju. This result requires a government authority to design a newsystem to reduce the price volatility. The author recommends here the pre-announcement of price guideline by authority, and aninsurance product and/or put option to cover down-side price risk.
Abstract
After implementing the RPS in 2012, independent PV memberships who participate in the REC markets have grown 19times within 4 years. On the other hand, the increase in capacity differ with times, though the long-term trend is on the rise. This paperexamines whether and how much the investments in the PV system by private investors are affected by past REC prices and the pricevolatility that represents market risk. This paper shows that PV capacity investments are inversely affected by the past price and thevolatility with the statistical significance for two dataset, inland and Cheju. This result requires a government authority to design a newsystem to reduce the price volatility. The author recommends here the pre-announcement of price guideline by authority, and aninsurance product and/or put option to cover down-side price risk.
참고문헌 (11)
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