Risk Analysis for Optimal Independent Renewable Energy System
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The deployment of renewable energy in off-grid systems is increasing steadily in both developed and developingcountries. In particular, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are keen to adopt renewable off-grid systems for power generation andtransportation to reduce their heavy reliance on imported oil and fossil fuels. In addition, off-grid systems are deemed to be animportant vehicle to boost the development of renewable-based grids because of their geographical constraints and costs for gridextension. With declining costs and increasing performance of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as declining costs and technologicalimprovements in electricity storage and control systems, adopting off-grid renewable energy systems could serve as an optimal optionfor SIDS to diversify the source of energy supply. In this respect, this paper identifies the most cost-efficient combination ofrenewable energy systems to assess the financial feasibility of the -grid renewable energy systems using HOMER. Moreover, based on@Risk simulations, uncertain factors, such as diesel cost, construction delays, and operating & maintenance (O&M) costs, will beconsidered to determine how those uncertainties in the future could affect the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).
Abstract
The deployment of renewable energy in off-grid systems is increasing steadily in both developed and developingcountries. In particular, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are keen to adopt renewable off-grid systems for power generation andtransportation to reduce their heavy reliance on imported oil and fossil fuels. In addition, off-grid systems are deemed to be animportant vehicle to boost the development of renewable-based grids because of their geographical constraints and costs for gridextension. With declining costs and increasing performance of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as declining costs and technologicalimprovements in electricity storage and control systems, adopting off-grid renewable energy systems could serve as an optimal optionfor SIDS to diversify the source of energy supply. In this respect, this paper identifies the most cost-efficient combination ofrenewable energy systems to assess the financial feasibility of the -grid renewable energy systems using HOMER. Moreover, based on@Risk simulations, uncertain factors, such as diesel cost, construction delays, and operating & maintenance (O&M) costs, will beconsidered to determine how those uncertainties in the future could affect the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).
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