고체로켓 케이스 내압파열 고장모드의 신뢰도예측
Reliability Prediction of Failure Modes due to Pressure inSolid Rocket Case
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초록
본 연구에서는 고체로켓의 임무 수행 중 연소실 내압으로 인해 발생하는 고체로켓 케이스의 3가지 고장(응력파괴, 균열파괴, 볼트 체결 부 파손) 확률을 효과적으로 예측하는 기법을 개발하였다. 전체적인 확률계산 과정은 다음과 같다: 1) 고체로켓 모터의 고장모드에 영향을 주는 설계 변수선정 및 확률분포 부여, 2) 연소해석을 통한 로켓의 최대작동압력(maximum expected operating pressure, MEOP)의 확률분포 계산, 3) 케이스의 응력과 변형 형상을 구하기 위한 유한요소해석, 4) 3가지 고장함수에 대한 신뢰도예측의 수행. 계산의 편의를 위해 유한요소모델은 축대칭으로 가정하였고 볼트 체결 부의 접촉을 고려하였다. 효율적인 신뢰도예측을 위해 FORM(first-order reliability method) 기법을 통해 MPP(most probable failure point)를 탐색한 후, LHS(latin hypercube sampling)와 반응표면기법을 적용하여 고장모드를 다항식으로 근사화하며, 중요도 추출법을 적용하여 고장확률을 계산하였다.
Abstract
In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.
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