Estimation on the Port Container Volume in Incheon Port
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper estimated the container volumes for the Incheon port with univariate time series. As best suited models Winters' additive model, ARIMA model,and Winters' additive model were selected by import-export, coastal, and transshipment volume respectively, based on the data of monthly volume by October 2008 since January 2001. This study supposed the import-export container volumes would be decreased by 14% against that in 2008 and would have been recovered to the increasing trend of the volumes beyond the fourth quarter of 2010. The future import-export and transshipment volumes showed the increasing trend beyond 2011, while the coastal volumes would be on the stagnation. The yearly container volumes were finally forecasted as 1,705, 2,432, and 3,341 thousand TEU in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.
Abstract
This paper estimated the container volumes for the Incheon port with univariate time series. As best suited models Winters' additive model, ARIMA model,and Winters' additive model were selected by import-export, coastal, and transshipment volume respectively, based on the data of monthly volume by October 2008 since January 2001. This study supposed the import-export container volumes would be decreased by 14% against that in 2008 and would have been recovered to the increasing trend of the volumes beyond the fourth quarter of 2010. The future import-export and transshipment volumes showed the increasing trend beyond 2011, while the coastal volumes would be on the stagnation. The yearly container volumes were finally forecasted as 1,705, 2,432, and 3,341 thousand TEU in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.
참고문헌 (11)
- 채희정, "부산항 컨화물의 연안환적운송 활성화에 관한 연구", 한국항해항만학회지, 32(3), pp.159~165 (2008), 한국항해항만학회
- 정태원, "인천항의 마케팅 분석 및 개선방향에 관한 연구", 한국항해항만학회지, 31(3), pp.181~190 (2007), 한국항해항만학회
- George, E.P, "Time Series Analysis" (2008), John Wiley & Sons
- Hu,M.H, "Spss Time Series Analysis And Missing Value Analysis" (2008), SPSS Korea
- Jeong, D.B, "Simplicity of Analysis for Time Series data" (2001), SPSS Korea
- Jun,C.Y, "Analysis of Factors Affecting Recent Variation of Container Traffic Volume" (2006), Korea maritime institute
- 김성철, "SWOT", AHP 방법을 이용한 인천항만공사의 발전 방안에 관한 연구, 2008, pp.32(3), 193~198[DOI]
- Lee,I.A, "Incheon port, What was changed?", Maritime Korea, 419, pp.34~38 (2008)
- MLTM, "The planned revision of Korea ports basic plan", The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 29~48 (2006)
- 여기태, "인천항만의 물류수준 평가 및 개선방안 도출에 관한 연구", 한국항해항만학회지, 32(3), pp.179~184 (2008), 한국항해항만학회