The Relationship Between Renminbi Exchange Rate Fluctuations and China's Import and Export Trade
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.
Abstract
Purpose: The renminbi (RMB) has appreciated alongside the elevation of China's economic status, leading to increased exchange rate volatility. Moreover, China's medical industry saw a surge in import and export trade volume, with trade related to epidemic prevention and control in the medical sector significantly increasing its share. The medical device trade, in particular, occupies a substantial portion of this trade. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the import and export value of medical devices in the medical industry as a case study to explore the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the import and export trade of the medical industry during the pandemic. Additionally, it investigates whether the import and export trade of the medical industry can be a contributing factor to the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate. Results: Through an empirical study on the import and export values of medical devices in the medical industry over the past three years, as well as the RMB exchange rate, this paper establishes a VAR model and conducts a series of tests including stationarity tests and cointegration tests. Conclusions: The conclusion is that fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have a long-term impact on China's medical industry's import and export trade.
참고문헌 (36)
- Ahmad, F., "China’s economic development : Does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter", Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 33(2), pp.81~93 (2019)
- Ahmad, F., "China’s economic development : Does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter", Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 33(2), pp.81~93 (2019)
- Baek, J., "The South Korea–China trade and the bilateral real exchange rate : Asymmetric evidence from 33 industries", Economic Analysis and Policy, 71, pp.463~475 (2021)
- Chao, G., "The Concrete Analysis of the Change of Import and Export Trade of Chinese Enterprises Is Based on the Perspective of RMB Exchange Rate", Journal of Finance Research, 5(1), pp.24~28 (2021)
- Chen, L., "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on exchange rate volatility of China", Finance Research Letters, 32, pp.101266~ (2020)
- Chen, P. -F., "Renminbi exchange rate assessment and competitors’ exports : New perspective", China Economic Review, 50, pp.187~205 (2018)
- Cheung, Y. -W., "China–US trade flow behavior : The implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications", Review of World Economics, 152(1), pp.43~67 (2016)
- Chiu, Y. -B., "Trade Balance, Savings Rate, and Real Exchange Rate : Evidence from China and Its Trading Partners", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(2), pp.351~364 (2019)
- Dong, B., "Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China’s regional economy : A dynamic CGE analysis", Energy Economics, 86, pp.103762~ (2020)
- Eichengreen, B., "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms : The role of processing exports", Journal of Development Economics, 116, pp.146~157 (2015)
- Fuchs, A., "Mask wars : China’s exports of medical goods in times of COVID-19", SSRN, ~ (2020)
- Guo, J., "Spillover effects of RMB exchange rate among RCEP member countries : Empirical evidence from time-frequency domain approach", Plos One, 18(6), pp.e0287566~ (2023)
- Hooy, C. -W., "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China", Economic Modelling, 47, pp.253~259 (2015)
- Iqbal, N., "The nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan city : New findings from partial and multiple wavelet coherence", Science of The Total Environment, 729, pp.138916~ (2020)
- Li, H., "How do exchange rate movements affect Chinese exports?—A firm-level investigation", Journal of International Economics, 97(1), pp.148~161 (2015)
- Liu, T., "Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate policy", International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(3), pp.3531~3549 (2022)
- Ma, Y., "Co-movement between oil, gas, coal, and iron ore prices, the Australian dollar, and the Chinese RMB exchange rates : A copula approach", Resources Policy, 63, pp.101471~ (2019)
- Mattoo, A., "Beggar-thy-neighbor effects of exchange rates : A study of the renminbi", American Economic Journal : Economic Policy, 9(4), pp.344~366 (2017)
- McKinnon, R., "China’s Exchange Rate and Financial Repression : The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency", China & World Economy, 22(3), pp.1~35 (2014)
- Miao, B., "Renminbi exchange rate exposure : Evidence from Chinese industries", Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 11(4), pp.229~250 (2013)
- Smallwood, A. D., "Analyzing exchange rate uncertainty and bilateral export growth in China : A multivariate GARCH-based approach", Economic Modelling, 82, pp.332~344 (2019)
- Tang, B., "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China : A cointegrated VAR approach", China Economic Review, 34, pp.293~310 (2015)
- Thorbecke, W., "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on China’s processed exports", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25(2), pp.33~46 (2011)
- Thorbecke, W., "Measuring the Competitiveness of China’s Processed Exports", China & World Economy, 23(1), pp.78~100 (2015)
- Wang, H., "The influence of USD", CNY foreign exchange rate, RMB NEER and spatial effects on China’s foreign trade, 2016, pp.6(3), 304~318
- Warren, M., "An investigation of exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and FDI nexus in a gravity model approach", International Review of Applied Economics, 37(4), pp.482~502 (2023)
- Wei, Z., "Spillover effects of RMB exchange rate among B&R countries : Before and during COVID-19 event", Finance Research Letters, 37, pp.101782~ (2020)
- Whalley, J., "Are Offshore RMB Arrangements the Basis for a Long-term Exchange Rate System without Convertibility", China & World Economy, 21(1), pp.26~46 (2013)
- Xiao, H., "The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on the Import and Export Trade of China’s Textile and Clothing Industry : An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 2000 to 2019", 2021 6th International Conference on Modern Management and Education Technology (MMET 2021), pp.348~351 (2021)
- Xing, Y., "Processing trade, exchange rates and China’s bilateral trade balances", Journal of Asian Economics, 23(5), pp.540~547 (2012)
- Xu, J., "The impact of exchange rate movements on multi-product firms’ export performance : Evidence from China", China Economic Review, 39, pp.46~62 (2016)
- Xu, Y., "Dynamic exchange rate dependences: The effect of the US-China trade war", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 68, pp.101238~ (2020)
- Yang, Y., "What determines the long-term volatility of the offshore RMB exchange rate", Applied Economics, 55(21), pp.2367~2388 (2023)
- Zhang, M., "Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform : Historical Review, Experience and Prospect", China Finance and Economic Review, 12(1), pp.3~23 (2023)
- Zhang, T., "Is RMB appreciation a nightmare for the Chinese firms? An analysis on firm profitability and exchange rate", International Review of Economics & Finance, 54, pp.27~43 (2018)
- Zhou, Y., "The impact of RMB Internationalization on China’s import and export trade", Doctor, pp.2022