An Empirical Study of the Impact of China’s Export Tax Rebates on RMB Appreciation
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
While the issue of RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) revaluation became the focus of world attention in 2003, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 didn’t fundamentally solve the RMB appreciation problem, and even in 2008 the global financial crisis made RMB appreciation face new challenges and risks. It appears that the rise in RMB value is caused by supply exceeding demand in China’s foreign exchange market; however, intrinsically it is due to the asymmetry in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The export tax rebates policy implemented by Chinese government is one of the leading causes of the asymmetry. This study constructs a transmission model between export tax rebates and foreign exchange rates, and applies the Granger Test to validate the causality between kernel variables based on correlative data from 1994-2011, and uses the error correction method to analyze the quantified relations of kernel variables, and finally gets the contribution rate of export tax rebates to RMB appreciation.
Abstract
While the issue of RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) revaluation became the focus of world attention in 2003, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 didn’t fundamentally solve the RMB appreciation problem, and even in 2008 the global financial crisis made RMB appreciation face new challenges and risks. It appears that the rise in RMB value is caused by supply exceeding demand in China’s foreign exchange market; however, intrinsically it is due to the asymmetry in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The export tax rebates policy implemented by Chinese government is one of the leading causes of the asymmetry. This study constructs a transmission model between export tax rebates and foreign exchange rates, and applies the Granger Test to validate the causality between kernel variables based on correlative data from 1994-2011, and uses the error correction method to analyze the quantified relations of kernel variables, and finally gets the contribution rate of export tax rebates to RMB appreciation.
참고문헌 (16)
- Arize, A. C., "Exchange-rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LCD’s", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 18(1), pp.10~17 (2000)
- Chen, B., "Discussion on the Influence of the New Export Tax- reimbursement on the Exchange Rate of RMB", Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy, 9, pp.140~141 (2005)
- Chowdhury, A. R, "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-correction Models", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 75(4), pp.700~706 (1993)
- "China should keep sufficient foreign exchange reserves" (2011)[URL]
- Jin, X., "A Comparative Study between RMB Depreciation Policy and Export Tax Rebate Rate Adjustment", Finance and Trade Research, 2, pp.73~76 (2002)
- Lardy, N. R., "Sustaining China’s Economic Growth - After the Global Financial Crisis" (2012), Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Lee, T, "New Explanation on the Mechanism of RMB’s Exchange Rate: Governmental Activity and the Non-symmetric Property", Journal of Sichuan University (Social Science Edition), 2, pp.10~14 (2004)
- Luo, K, "The Pressure of the Appreciation of RMB: Causes and Alleviating Methods", Nankai Journal, 2, pp.56~63 (2004)
- Ma, D., "The Analysis on the Non-symmetry in the Pressure of RMB Appreciation", Shanghai Finance, 8, pp.70~75 (2010)
- Mundell, R., "China Should Maintain Exchange Rates for Yuan", Xinhua New Agency, ~ (2003)
- "National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbooks, 2004-2011", ~
- Pei, C, "Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: China’s Perspective", Chinese Review of Financial Studies, 1, pp.21~36 (2010)
- Xu, N., "The Empirical Analysis of Effectiveness to Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate by Export Duty Rebate Policy Adjustment", Journal of Changsha University, 1, pp.24~28 (2005)
- Yang, S., "An Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Export Tax Rebate Policy on RMB Exchange Rate", Journal of Hunan Business College, 2, pp.66~72 (2006)
- Yang, Y., "A Study of the Effect Mechanism of Export Tax Rebate on RMB Exchange Rate", Journal of Social Science of Hunan Medical University, 1, pp.73~76 (2006)
- Yao, X., "Analysis on the Causes of the Upvaluation Pressure of RMB and Countermeasures", Sci-Tech Information Development & Economy, 5, pp.100~101 (2005)