카자흐스탄의 주요 교역국에 대한 수출변동 분석

Abstract

Kazakhstan’s economic growth during the 2000s has been driven primarily by natural resources. During that time, Kazakhstan’s economy experienced two economic booms, one in 2001-07 based on both expanded oil output and rising oil prices, and one in 2010-14, based on resurgent oil prices. Kazakhstan’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 13.9 percent between 2010 and 2018 and experienced significant structural transformation over 2000-18. However, most new jobs were in nontradable services sectors, where productivity growth was slow. The 2014 decline in oil prices was a wakeup call that intensified the urgency of addressing the weaknesses of a growth model based on oil and nontradable services. Structural reforms are now an imperative, not an option. The decline in oil prices revealed that while Kazakhstan’s economic model was inclusive, it was not sustainable. Structural reforms were necessary to shift the base of economic growth from nontradables to the production of tradables. The constant market share analysis reveals that for Kazakhstan’s exports to Italy, China, France, Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland and Korea the competitive effect is much stronger than the world market effect since the standard deviation of the competitiveness effect is by far closer than that of the world market effect. However, the competitive effect plays a positive role in Italy, Russia, Netherlands, France, and Korea, while Kazakhstan’s competitiveness has a negative value in China and Switzerland.