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OECD 국가의 청년니트 결정요인: 고용구조 변화와 사회정책의 조절효과

A Study on the Determinants of Youth NEETs in OECD Countries:The Moderating Effect of Social Policies and Industrial Shift

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주제분류사회과학일반

초록

본 연구의 목적은 고용의 탈산업화라는 고용구조의 변화와 사회정책이 청년의 니트(NEET) 확률에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 규명하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 LIS(Luxembourg Income Study) 데이터베이스를 분석자료로 다수 국가의 다시점 미시자료를 결합한 다수준 선형확률모형(multilevel linear probability model)을 분석전략으로 채택하였다. 다수준 분석에 포함된 최종 분석대상은 니트 판별이 가능한 OECD 22개국의 81개 데이터셋(1995~2010년경)에 포함된 331,611명이다. 분석 결과, 제조업 고용비중의 1%p 하락은 청년의 니트 확률을 0.61%p 높이는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 교육․노동시장․복지제도는 직접적으로 청년니트 확률에 영향을 미치지는 않았다. 그러나 사회정책은 제조업 고용비중의 영향력을 다양한 방식으로 조절하는 것으로 나타났다. 교육제도의 선별성이 높을수록, 단체협상 적용률이 높을수록, 적극적 노동시장 비중과 실업 관련 급여의 소득대체 정도가 높을수록 고용구조 변화의 부적 영향력이 완화되었다. 그러나 직업교육 중심성이 높을수록, 노동조합 가입률이 높을수록 고용구조 변화가 니트 확률을 높이는 것을 더욱 강화하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 이러한 결과에 기초해 한국사회에 제공하는 정책적 시사점에 대해 논하였다.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the social structural causes of the youth NEETs(Not in Employment, Education and Training). This study focused especially structural shift from manufacturing industry to service industry and social polices. For this purpose, this study used the multilevel linear probability model to analyze the LIS (Luxembourg Income Study) database with combined cross-country and historical micro datasets. This study included 331,611 young persons included in 81 datasets (from 1995 to 2010) of 22 OECD countries. As a result, a 1% p decrease in the proportion of manufacturing employment increased the NEET probability of Youth by 0.61% p. However, the influence of industrial structure changes varied depending on education system, labor market and welfare polices. The higher the selectivity of the education system, the higher the rate of collective bargaining, the higher the proportion of active labor market and the replacement rate of unemployment-related benefits, industrial change was shown to offset the increased probability of falling into NEET. This study discusses policy implications for Korea based on these results.

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