포트폴리오 기법을 활용한 신규 전원 선택
Selection of New Generation Option Using Portfolio Approach
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초록
최근 들어 발전용 연료가격의 급등락과 기후변화협약의 발효 예정에 따라 발전회사의 적정 전원비중에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 포트폴리오 이론을 활용한 신규 전원의 선택 대안을 소개한다. 이를 위해, 실제 발전소 자료를 활용하여 발전비중 결과를 시산한다. 시산 결과에 따르면, 현재 전원구성에 비해 발전원별 비중이 달라지는 것을 알 수 있다. 또한 신규 발전원이 추가될 경우 위험감소 효과가 발생한다. 주요 변수별 민감도 분석 결과에 따르면, 신규석탄과 신규복합의 비교우위는 비용-위험 가중치에 따라 결정된다는 것을 알 수 있다.
Abstract
Recently, the interests about the optimal generation mix by generation companies are increasing due to drastic changes in fuel prices and climate change agreements. This study introduces an optional strategy to select new generation option based on the portfolio theory. For this purpose, it calculates the optimal generation proportion using real data. According to the empirical results, the proportion of generation mix could be different from that of the existing generation mix. In addition, the introduction of new generation sources would produce the risk-reduction effect. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the cost-risk weight should determine the relative advantage between coal-fired and gas-fired generation sources.
참고문헌 (12)
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