산업 수준의 파생수요함수를 활용한 제조업 전력수요의가격탄력성 분석
Estimation of Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in Manufacturing Sector Using Derived Demand Function at the Industry level
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초록
한국은 경쟁국 대비 제조업 비중이 높음에 따라 전력사용량도 높은 수준이다. 하지만 최근 우크라이나-러시아 간 전쟁으로 인한 유가 상승, 기후변화 대응을 위한 비용 상승 등으로 인해 전기요금 인상의 압박이 크다. 전력수요의 가격탄력성은 전력소비자들이 전기요금 변화에 얼마나 민감하게 반응하는지 확인할 수 있는 중요한 지표이다. 기존 연구는 모두 일반수요함수를 통해 전력수요의 가격탄력성을 추정하였으나, 제조업은 전기를 최종재로 소비하는 것이 아니라 이윤을 극대화하는 생산량을 정하고 이후에 투입요소 간 조정을 통해 최적 전력소비량을 결정하기 때문에 제조업의 전력수요는 파생수요에 해당한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 트랜스로그 생산함수의 파생수요함수를 통해 제조업 중분류별 전력수요의 가격탄력성을 추정하였다. 분석 자료로 제조업 10인 이상 전수를 조사한 통계청의 ‘광업제조업조사’를 활용하였다. 분석결과 제조업 모든 업종에서 전력수요의 가격탄력성이 –1보다 작아 전력수요가 전기요금에 매우 민감함을 확인하였다. 이는 향후 탄소중립 추진 과정에서 전기요금이 상승하여도 장기적으로 제조기업의 경쟁력을 크게 저해하지 않을 것이기 때문에 탄소중립 과정에서 발생하는 비용을 적정 수준에서 전력가격에 반영하는 것이 필요함을 시사한다.
Abstract
As Korea's manufacturing share is higher than that of its competitors, electricity consumption is also high. However, due to the recent increase in oil prices caused by the war between Ukraine and Russian, and rising costs to respond to climate change, there is a lot of pressure to increase electricity rates. The price elasticity of electricity demand is an important indicator to check how sensitive electricity consumers are to changes in electricity rates. All previous studies estimated the price elasticity of electricity demand through the general demand function. However, in the case of manufacturing, electricity is not consumed as a final product. Instead the production that maximizes profit is determined and then the optimal power consumption is determined through adjustment between input factors, which implies the demand of electricity in manufacturing sector is the derived demand. Therefore, in this study, the price elasticity of electricity demand for each manufacturing sector was estimated through the demand derived from the translog production function. As analysis data, the ‘Mining and Manufacturing Survey’ of the National Statistical Office, which surveyed all 10 or more manufacturing employees, was used. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that the price elasticity of electricity demand was less than -1 in all manufacturing sectors, so that electricity demand was very sensitive to electricity rates. This suggests that it is necessary to reflect the cost incurred in the carbon-neutral process in the electricity price at an appropriate level, because even if the electricity price rises in the future carbon-neutral process, it will not significantly impair the competitiveness of manufacturing companies.
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