열병합발전의 발전량 비중 결정요인:35개국 자료를 활용한 다국가 분석의 시사점을 중심으로
Factors Affecting the Share of CHP in the Total Generation: Insights from an Analysis of 35 Countries
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본 연구는 2009년, 2011년, 2013년, 2015년, 2017년, 2019년, 2021년까지 총 7개년의 35개국, 245개 패널자료를 활용하여 열병합발전의 발전량 비중을 결정짓는 요인을 분석하고 시사점을 도출한다. 이를 위해 4가지 회귀식에 대해 최소절대편차법(LAD, Least Absolute Deviations)이 적용되었다. 분석 결과, 열병합발전의 발전량 비중 결정요인으로 고려된 9개 항목 중 총 8개 항목이 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로, 국내총생산(GDP), 재생에너지 발전 비중, 적도로부터 각국의 수도까지 거리는 양의 상관관계를, 인구증가율, 대도시 거주비율, 난방도일, 환경 성과 지수(EPI), 1인당 CO2 배출량은 음의 상관관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 일반적으로 국가별 소득수준이 높아질수록 에너지소비도 증가하므로 열병합발전의 발전량 비중도 함께 증가한다. 재생에너지와 열병합발전은 모두 탄소배출을 줄이는 데 중요한 에너지원이며 특히 열병합발전은 재생에너지의 변동성을 보완하고 에너지 시스템의 신뢰성을 향상시킬 수 있는 적절한 수단이라는 관점에서 재생에너지 발전량 비중이 높을수록 열병합발전 비중이 높은 경향을 보인다. 그리고 적도로부터의 거리가 멀수록 동절기 열에너지 수요증가로 인한 열병합발전의 비중이 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서, 기후변화 대응을 위하여 최종적으로는 친환경 에너지 활용에 투자가 집중되겠지만 신재생에너지의 기술발전과 국가별 경제상황이 뒷받침되기 전까지는 에너지효율이 높고 분산형 전원인 열병합발전이 화석연료의 사용을 줄여 기후변화에 대응하는 주요 수단으로 활용될 수 있다. 향후에 기후변화 대응을 위한 열병합발전에 대한 정책 수립 시 본 연구 결과가 유용하게 활용될 수 있다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the factors determining the share of combined heat and power (CHP) in electricity production using panel data from 245 cases across 35 countries over seven years (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2021), and draws relevant implications. The Least Absolute Deviations (LAD) method was applied to four regression models. The results show that GDP, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation, and the distance from the equator to each country's capital have a positive relationship with the share of CHP, and are statistically significant at the 5% level. On the other hand, population growth rate, urban population ratio, heating degree days, and Environmental Performance Index (EPI) exhibit a negative relationship and are also statistically significant at the 5% level. Additionally, per capita CO2 emissions show a negative relationship with statistical significance at the 10% level. Generally, as national income levels rise, energy consumption increases, leading to a higher share of CHP. Both renewable energy and CHP are crucial in reducing carbon emissions. CHP, in particular, complements the variability of renewable energy and enhances the reliability of the energy system. Therefore, countries with a higher share of renewable energy tend to have a higher share of CHP. The study also confirms that the share of CHP increases with greater distance from the equator due to the higher demand for thermal energy in winter. While the ultimate goal in combating climate change is to invest in environmentally friendly energy, until technological advancements in renewable energy and national economic conditions are adequately supported, CHP, with its high energy efficiency and decentralized power generation, can serve as a key means to reduce fossil fuel use and address climate change. The findings of this study can be useful in the formulation of future policies on CHP for climate change mitigation.
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