Wind Risk Assessment for Building Cladding Considering Changes to Future Wind Speeds in South Korea
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초록
This study quantitatively assesses the risk of wind damage to building cladding by predicting future changes in wind speeds caused by climate change in South Korea. In order to predict changes in wind speed due to future climate change, the results of a previous study that predicted changes in the wind speed in South Korea using the HadGem3-RA model and the RCP scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration were utilized. The wind risk was then assessed using a convolution of the wind fragility model, representing the probability of failure due to an arbitrary wind speed, and the wind hazard model, representing the probability of occurrence of strong wind speed. The wind fragility model was developed using a Monte-Carlo simulation, while the wind hazard model was taken from a previous study that analyzed the probability of occurrence of typhoon-induced strong wind speeds around South Korea using past typhoon historical data and the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Based on the results of the wind risk assessment, the changes in wind risk due to future changes in wind speed were quantitatively compared. From the results, the high wind speeds occur more in the southern region of South Korea where typhoons mostly pass, than they do Seoul. In additionally, there is no change in the wind risk for Busan because the changes in the wind speed are insignificant under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The methodology of this study can be used as a basis for predicting and preparing for future wind-induced damage. It is necessary to expand the target structures for wind fragility assessment as well as the assessment areas of the wind hazard to evaluate wind risk for the national level.
Abstract
This study quantitatively assesses the risk of wind damage to building cladding by predicting future changes in wind speeds caused by climate change in South Korea. In order to predict changes in wind speed due to future climate change, the results of a previous study that predicted changes in the wind speed in South Korea using the HadGem3-RA model and the RCP scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration were utilized. The wind risk was then assessed using a convolution of the wind fragility model, representing the probability of failure due to an arbitrary wind speed, and the wind hazard model, representing the probability of occurrence of strong wind speed. The wind fragility model was developed using a Monte-Carlo simulation, while the wind hazard model was taken from a previous study that analyzed the probability of occurrence of typhoon-induced strong wind speeds around South Korea using past typhoon historical data and the Monte-Carlo simulation method. Based on the results of the wind risk assessment, the changes in wind risk due to future changes in wind speed were quantitatively compared. From the results, the high wind speeds occur more in the southern region of South Korea where typhoons mostly pass, than they do Seoul. In additionally, there is no change in the wind risk for Busan because the changes in the wind speed are insignificant under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The methodology of this study can be used as a basis for predicting and preparing for future wind-induced damage. It is necessary to expand the target structures for wind fragility assessment as well as the assessment areas of the wind hazard to evaluate wind risk for the national level.
참고문헌 (20)
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