1991년 이후 물가의 변화와 근원인플레이션간의 연관성에 관한 연구

Abstract

This paper analyzed the correlation between prices and inflation by using the consumer price fluctuation rate, producer price fluctuation rate, and core inflation rate for 367 samples, which are monthly data, for 30 years and 7 months from January 1991 to July 2021. The empirical analysis results are as follows. First, as a result of Granger Causality analysis, producer price was found to have a preemptive effect on consumer price, and producer price also showed that it had a preemptive effect on core inflation. Second, as a result of the analysis of Impulse Response Function, it was found that the producer price and consumer price had a slight influence on each other and then disappeared after 1991. Third, as a result of analysis of variance decomposition, it was found that the consumer price after 1991 responds very slightly to the producer price, but the core inflation responds very strongly to the consumer price. As a result of this analysis, producer price can be understood as an information transfer mechanism that affects consumer price and consumer price directly affects core inflation. Therefore, it has been demonstrated that the change in producer price directly affects consumer price, and that the rise in consumer price causes inflation. This paper can suggest that the core inflation rate as an important economic indicator can be recognized as an appropriate economic indicator that responds to changes in prices, and acted as a motive for economic actors to recognize it as important. In addition, the result of the analysis that producer price directly affects consumer price and core inflation suggests that if the cost required to produce a product rises, it can lead to an increase in consumer price and ultimately to inflation.