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소비자의 귀추추론 오류 대한 연구

An Investigation of Consumer's Fallacy of Abductive Reasoning

한웅희
한국소비문화학회|2011.12|소비문화연구 (Journal of Consumption Culture)|제14권 제4호|pp. 119-137|DOI 10.17053/jcc.2011.14.4.007

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참고문헌

키워드

Bayes' Theorem귀추추론역오류기저율 오류베이즈 정리이원적 프로세스 이론Abductive ReasoningInverse FallacyBase-Rate FallacyDual Processes Theory.

초록

본 연구에서는 어떤 결과로부터 원인을 추론하는 귀추추론 과정에서 발생하는 오류에 대해 탐구하고자 한다. 구체적으로는 추론과제의 표현방식에 따라 오류의 발생이 어떻게 달라지는지 알아보기 위해 세 번의 실험을 실시하였다. 본 연구에서는 다음과 같은 사실을 발견할 수 있었다. 첫째, 문장형태의 추론과제가 기저율 정보를 포함하지 않은 경우에도 연역적 조건추론과 귀추적 조건추론을 혼동하는 역오류가 발생하였고 그 결과로 원인에대한 귀추추론 자체에도 오류가 발생하였다. 둘째, 기저율 정보가 포함되지 않은 빈도형태의 추론과제의 경우에는 역오류가 발생하지 않았고 원인에 대한 귀추추론 자체에도 오류가 발생하지 않았다. 마지막으로 기저율 정보가 포함되지 않은 그림형태의 추론과제의 경우에는 문장형태의 추론과제의 경우와 같이 역오류가 발생하였고그 결과로 원인에 대한 귀추추론 자체에도 오류가 발생하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 근거로 이론적ㆍ실무적 시사점을 제시하고 한계점과 향후 연구에 대해 논의하였다.

Abstract

This study investigated the fallacy of abduction which reasoned the causes from the consequences. Especially, current study researched the influence of representation format on the occurrence of the fallacy. The results was as follows. First, even when the information about base-rate is not provided, the inverse fallacy occurred, which is the confusion between the abductive reasoning and the deductive reasoning. And consequently, the fallacy of abductive reasoning for the causes occurred. Second, when the information about base-rate is not provided, in the case of representation format by frequency, the inverse fallacy didn't occur and the fallacy of abductive reasoning for the causes didn't, either. Third,when the information about base-rate is not provided, in the case of representation format by picture, the inverse fallacy occurred and the fallacy of abductive reasoning for the causes did, too. On the basis of these results, theoretical and practical implications were suggested and the limitations and future research were discussed.

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