주관적 계층의식이 세대 내 및 세대 간 계층상승 가능성에 미치는 영향과 사회적 공정성의 조절효과: 서울시민의 인식을 중심으로

Abstract

Class perception and perceived mobility are key indicators that reflect individuals’ and future generations’ expectations for life, closely tied to social integration, institutional trust, civic dynamism, and solidarity. In contemporary Korean society, expectations for upward mobility have weakened amid increasing perceptions of entrenched class divisions and inequality. These perceptions are shaped not only by economic conditions but also by psychosocial factors such as perceived social fairness, institutional trust, and relative deprivation. Based on this problem awareness, the present study empirically analyzes the influence of perceived social fairness on mobility expectations and examines the moderating effect of subjective class perception. The analysis utilizes responses from 36,280 Seoul citizens aged 15 and older, drawn from the 2024 Seoul Survey household dataset. Using ordinal logistic regression, the study finds that lower subjective class perception negatively influences both intragenerational and intergenerational mobility expectations. However, perceived social fairness was found to moderate this negative relationship. In other words, individuals with lower class perception still tended to maintain more positive mobility expectations when they perceived society as fair. This study thus empirically demonstrates that mobility expectations are not merely private hopes, but are closely linked to systemic trust, fairness, and feelings of relative deprivation. It underscores the need for an integrated approach—both psychological and institutional—to restore expectations of upward mobility.