Analysis of Korea’s Long-Term Growth Process and Lessons for Sustainable Development Policy
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper analyzes Korea’s growth process, not only rapid but also sustained for six decades at 6% per year. The sources of such growth were balanced among labor market demographic factors, capital investment, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth. However, the main engine of growth evolved sequentially, e.g., labor and human capital factors in the 1960s, capital deepening in the 1970s, and then productivity growth for the following periods. We found that major sources of the six-decade sustained growth were productivity growth and human capital accumulation rather than the expansion of labor force or capital investment. Counterfactual analysis of neoclassical growth model reveals that the accelerated productivity growth after the fast capital deepening was the key to Korea’s long-term growth, avoiding the middle-income trap. Appropriate calibration of the neoclassical growth model allowing time-varying transitional growth parameters explains Korea’s growth experience well and provides useful lessons for sustainable development policy.
Abstract
This paper analyzes Korea’s growth process, not only rapid but also sustained for six decades at 6% per year. The sources of such growth were balanced among labor market demographic factors, capital investment, human capital accumulation, and productivity growth. However, the main engine of growth evolved sequentially, e.g., labor and human capital factors in the 1960s, capital deepening in the 1970s, and then productivity growth for the following periods. We found that major sources of the six-decade sustained growth were productivity growth and human capital accumulation rather than the expansion of labor force or capital investment. Counterfactual analysis of neoclassical growth model reveals that the accelerated productivity growth after the fast capital deepening was the key to Korea’s long-term growth, avoiding the middle-income trap. Appropriate calibration of the neoclassical growth model allowing time-varying transitional growth parameters explains Korea’s growth experience well and provides useful lessons for sustainable development policy.
참고문헌 (15)
- David, Paul, "Invention and Accumulation of America’s Economic Growth : A Nineteenth-century Parable", Carnegie-Rochster Conference Series of Public Policy, 6, pp.179~228 (1977)
- Eichengreen, Barry, "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down : International Evidence and Implications for China", Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), pp.42~87 (2012)
- Feenstra, Robert C., "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table", American Economic Review, 105(10), pp.3150~3182 (2015)
- Hall, Robert E., "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), pp.83~116 (1999)
- Hevia, C., "Savings and Growth in Egypt", Middle East Development Journal, 4(1) (2012)
- Korea’s Growth Experience and Long-Term Growth Model, "Jeong, Hyeok", World Bank, ~, pp.Policy Research Working Paper No. 8240 (2017)
- Jones, Charles, "Sources of U. S. Growth in a World of Ideas", American Economic Review, 92(1), pp.220~239 (2002)
- Klenow, Peter J., "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997", pp.73~103 (1997), MIT Press
- Mankiw, Gregory, "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), pp.407~437 (1992)
- Lucas, Robert E. Jr., "On the Mechanics of Economic Development", Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp.3~42 (1988)
- Lucas, Robert E. Jr., "Making a Miracle", Econometrica, 61(2), pp.251~272 (1993)
- Impact of Population Aging on Asia’s Future Growth, "Park, Donghyun", ADB Economics, ~, pp.ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 281 (2011)
- Pennings, S., "Long-Term Growth Model v4. 0-Model Description" (2017)
- Solow, Robert M., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp.65~94 (1956)
- Uzawa, Hirofumi, "Neutral Inventions and Stability of Growth Equilibrium", Review of Economic Studies, 28(2), pp.117~124 (1961)