From Miracle to Mediocrity? Explaining the Growth Slowdown of the Korean Economy
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
To investigate the causes of Korea’s growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-life-related choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea’s high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea’s growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea’s experience.
Abstract
To investigate the causes of Korea’s growth slowdown over the past thirty years, we estimate the contributions of major developmental factors, including i) demographic factors (changes in population growth and workforce age due to the demographic transition), ii) quality-of-life-related choice factors (changes in working hours, education, and the female employment rate), iii) structural change, and iv) the effects of productivity catch-up. Our estimates show that these four groups of factors account for approximately 90 percent of the growth slowdown, with demographic factors contributing approximately 30 percent and the other three groups of factors each contributing about 20 percent. We also show that the same factors explain most of Korea’s high growth in the 1980s. These results suggest that Korea’s growth slowdown is basically a consequence of its successful economic development and that the high growth and subsequent slowdown can be regarded as a single process. In addition, given that the factors examined here exhibit similar patterns of change in the course of economic development of most countries, we think that our estimation results of the relationship between economic development and changes in economic growth trends could have more general implications that go beyond Korea’s experience.
참고문헌 (53)
- The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity, "Aiyar, S.", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper 16 (2016), 238
- Antolin-Diaz, J., "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth", Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(2), pp.343~356 (2016)
- Barro, R., "Convergence", Journal of Political Economy, 100, pp.223~251 (1992)
- Barro, R., "Economic Growth" (1995), McGraw Hill
- Convergence and modernization revisited, "Barro, R.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 18295 (2012)
- Baumol, W., "Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis", American Economic Review, 57(3), pp.415~426 (1967)
- Baumol, W., "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long Run Data Show", American Economic Review, 76, pp.1072~1085 (1986)
- Bergeaud, A., "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012", Review of Income and Wealth, 62(3) (2016)
- The Impact of Population Aging and Delayed Retirement on Workforce Productivity, "Burtless, G.", Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, ~, pp.Working Paper 2013-11 (2013)
- Davis, K., "The World Demographic Transition", Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 237, pp.1~11 (1945)
- Duernecker, G., "The Productivity Growth Slowdown and Kaldor’s Growth Facts", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 130, pp.1~20 (2021)
- Echevarria, C., "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth", International Economic Review, 38, pp.431~452 (1997)
- Eichengreen, B., "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down:International Evidence and Implications for China", Asian Economic Papers, 11(1), pp.42~87 (2012)
- Eichengreen, B., "From Miracle to Maturity: The Growth of the Korean Economy" (2012), Harvard Univ. Press
- Eichengreen, B., "Growth Slowdown Redux", Japan and the World Economy, 32, pp.65~84 (2016)
- Feyer, J., "Aggregate Evidence on the Link between Age Structure and Productivity", Population and Development Review, pp.78~99 (2008)
- Gordon, R., "The Rise and Fall of American Growth" (2016), Princeton Univ. Press
- Han, J., "Empirical Assessment of Growth Slowdown of the Korean Economy after Financial Crisis", KDI Policy Forum, 201 (2008), Korea Development Institute
- Han, J., "Demographic Change, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in Korea", Japan and the World Economy, 32, pp.100984~ (2020)
- Hayashi, F., "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade", Review of Economic Dynamics, 5(1), pp.206~235 (2003)
- Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regression, "Heckman, J.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 9732 (2003)
- Growth and Structural Transformation, "Herrendorf, B.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 18996 (2013)
- Hulten, C., "Technical Change and the Reproducibility of Capital", American Economic Review, 63(5), pp.956~965 (1975)
- Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography, "Hulten, C.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 7471 (2000)
- Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger, "Hulten, C.", University of Maryland, ~ (1999)
- Kang, D., "The End of High Growth in Korea: the Role of Change in Inter-sectoral Shifts of Labor", Economic Analysis, 7(3), pp.134~163 (2001), The Bank of Korea
- Kang, D., "Korean Economy’s Growth Slowdown and Socioeconomic Maturity Factors", Kukje Kyungje Yongu, 15(3) (2009), The Korea International Economic Association
- Kang, D., "A Study on the Patterns of Changes in Industrial Structure and Long-run Aggregate Productivity Growth" (2019), Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade
- Kim, S., "The Fall of Growth and Structural Reform in Korea", Kyungje Ronjip, 55(1), pp.3~27 (2016)
- Landry, A., "La Revolution Demographique: Etudes et Essais sur les Problemes de la Population" (1934), INED-Presses Universitaires de France
- Maddison, A., "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment", Journal of Economic Literature, 25(2), pp.649~698 (1987)
- Mincer, J., "Schooling, Experience and Earnings" (1974), Columbia Univ. Press
- Murphy, K., "Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles", Journal of Labor Economics, 8(2), pp.202~229 (1990)
- Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth, "Nordhaus, W.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 8095 (2001)
- Retrospective on the 1970s Productivity Slowdown, "Nordhaus, W.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper 10950 (2004)
- Notestein, F., "Food for the World", pp.36~57 (1945), University of Chicago Press
- OECD, "Measuring Productivity: OECD Manual" (2001)
- Psacharopoulos, G., "Returns to Investment in Education: A Global Update", World Development, 22(9), pp.1325~1343 (1994)
- Rodrik, D., "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1), pp.165~204 (2012)
- Rhymes, T, "On Concepts of Capital and Technical Change" (1971), Cambridge Univ. Press
- Samuelson, P., "Economics" (2005), McGraw-Hill
- Smil, V., "Growth: from Microorganisms to Megacities" (2019), MIT Univ. Press
- 석병훈, "한국경제의 추세성장률 하락과 요인분해", 경제분석, 27(2), pp.1~40 (2021), 한국은행
- Thompson, W., "Population", American Journal of Sociology, 34, pp.959~975 (1929)
- Vollrath, D., "Fully Grown" (2020), University of Chicago Press
- "World Inequality Report", ~ (2022)
- Yoshikawa, H.(吉川洋), "Japanese Economy and Macroeconomics (『日本經濟とマクロ經濟學』)" (1992), Toyokeizaishinboshya(東洋經濟新報社)
- 강두용, "노동이동의 소진과 고도성장의 종료", 경제분석, 7(3) (2001), 한국은행
- 강두용, "한국경제의 成長 鈍化와 經濟成熟化 要因: 人口學的 變化와 就業構造 變化의 성장둔화 효과", 국제경제연구, 15(3), pp.93~132 (2009), 한국국제경제학회[DOI]
- 산업구조 변화와 집계 생산성 추세의 장기 패턴에 관한 연구, "강두용", 산업연구원, ~ (2019)
- 김세직, "한국경제: 성장 위기와 구조개혁", 경제논집, 55(1) (2016), 서울대학교 경제연구소
- 석병훈, "한국경제의 추세 성장률 하락과 원인", BOK 경제연구, (2) (2021), 한국은행
- 한진희, "경제위기 이후 한국경제의 성장둔화에 대한 실증적 평가", KDI 정책포럼, (201) (2008)