Bilateral and Multilateral Aspects of a Probable Peace Regime on The Korean Peninsula (The View from Experts in Russia)
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The process of creating a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is based both on bilateral tracks (the most important ones are the US-DPRK and the North-South tracks) and multilateral ones. This process is deeply embedded in a framework that involves a larger number of players, including Russia, China and Japan, as well as the United Nations. The primary bilateral track is the US-DPRK dialogue, the history of which is dramatic; the unprecedented upturn in 2018 gave rise to many hopes that the peace regime may be achieved in exchange for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. North-South dialogue also played a crucial role.What are the reasons that bilateral attempts for a settlement have gone nowhere so far? As a result, North Korea might have passed a “point of no return” in its drive to reach a nuclear status. At the same time an uneasy confrontational stability has settled on the Peninsula, and paradoxically it, in fact, suits everyone as a lesser of evils. This balance might be institutionalized. A multilateral approach should be tested in order to reconcile the antagonists and create a system of multilateral guarantees for the implementation of agreements. Ideas on roadmap options and synchronizing of the steps to move to the new peace regime are suggested in the article.
Abstract
The process of creating a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula is based both on bilateral tracks (the most important ones are the US-DPRK and the North-South tracks) and multilateral ones. This process is deeply embedded in a framework that involves a larger number of players, including Russia, China and Japan, as well as the United Nations. The primary bilateral track is the US-DPRK dialogue, the history of which is dramatic; the unprecedented upturn in 2018 gave rise to many hopes that the peace regime may be achieved in exchange for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. North-South dialogue also played a crucial role.What are the reasons that bilateral attempts for a settlement have gone nowhere so far? As a result, North Korea might have passed a “point of no return” in its drive to reach a nuclear status. At the same time an uneasy confrontational stability has settled on the Peninsula, and paradoxically it, in fact, suits everyone as a lesser of evils. This balance might be institutionalized. A multilateral approach should be tested in order to reconcile the antagonists and create a system of multilateral guarantees for the implementation of agreements. Ideas on roadmap options and synchronizing of the steps to move to the new peace regime are suggested in the article.
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