지방자치단체 사회복지지출 영향요인 분석: 공간패널회귀분석을 중심으로
Spatial Autocorrelation of Welfare Expenditure in Korean Local Governments
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초록
이 연구는 공간패널회귀분석을 통해 사회복지지출의 공간자기상관을 분석하였다. 분석기간은 2009년, 2014년, 2018년이며 분석대상은 전국 222개 시･군･구 자치단체이다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라 지방자치단체의 사회복지지출에 공간자기상관이 존재하는 것으로 나타나 인접 지역의 사회복지지출 증가가 분석대상 지역의 사회복지지출을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 투표율이 사회복지지출을 증가시키는 것으로 나타나 지방자치단체가 지역주민의 선호를 정책에 반영하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 사회복지지출 증가에 미치는 이전재원의 영향력이 지방세의 영향력보다 3배 이상 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 우리나라 지방자치단체의 사회복지지출에서 인접 지역 간 비교경쟁이 존재할 수 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study verified the existence of spatial autocorrelation of welfare expenditure in Korean local governments. As a primary result of this study, first, there is a spatial autocorrelation in welfare expenditure. This suggests that there may be yardstick competition between local governments. Second, turnout has been shown to increase welfare spending. This result supports the hypothesis of this study that the incumbent expands welfare spending by local governments, which actively expresses preferences for policies to increase citizen’s support and re-election possibilities. Third, the influence of intergovernmental grants on the increase in welfare spending is more than three times greater than that of local taxes. Considering prior studies that the marginal effects of unconditional grants outweigh the marginal effects of conditional grants and conditional grants do not have a significant impact on government spending, these results indicate that local governments receive subsidies and use them to expand government spending rather than ease the tax burden on residents.
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