중국의 패권화 전망에 대한 분석적 평가

Abstract

Chinese President Xi Jinping is clearly expressing the intention to gain recognition from the international community as a major power on par with the United States (U.S) through the Chinese Dream. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, he has declared the dreams of a strong military and maritime expansion, aiming to enhance China's maritime military capabilities and build a robust economic foundation, driving the establishment of a new international order centered around China. This study aims to assess the fulfillment of the five key conditions for China's rise as a major power and forecast the possibility of future hegemony. Firstly, from a military perspective, China ranks as the world's third-largest military power and is dedicated to strengthening and modernizing its naval capabilities through its pursuit of "maritime power" and the "strong military dream." However, securing global power projection capabilities akin to the U.S. in the short term would be challenging. Secondly, in terms of economic power, China has achieved remarkable economic growth through its process of reform and opening up. Nevertheless, as of 2020, China's per capita GDP stands at about one-sixth of the U.S.', and it has not yet developed key cutting-edge technologies in fields of advanced science and technology to lead the world. Thirdly, from the perspective of domestic control, China faces a multitude of issues to address, including regional disparities in wealth, conflicts with ethnic minorities, and other challenges stemming from imbalances. Furthermore, China's global rankings reveal internal vulnerabilities, as it stands at the lowest tiers in various indices: press freedom (177th), corruption perception (80th), fragile states index (92nd), and world happiness index (94th). Fourthly, in terms of adaptability to the external environment, China has initiated several multilateral cooperation mechanisms such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It seeks to expand its influence through Outward Direct Investment (ODI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, achieving results substantial enough to threaten the United States in the short term is challenging, and there is a significant likelihood of worsening strategic relations with the U.S. as China's influence grows. Lastly, in terms of soft power, China's failure to develop its identity as a major power through normative influence is raising concerns within the international community. As a result, while China is indeed narrowing the power gap with the U.S. this has predominantly been achieved through a quantitative increase in hard power. Consequently, China's influence in diplomacy and soft power on the international stage remains limited. Moreover, China faces difficulties acquiring the capacity to lead the global political, economic, and security order in the short term against the U.S. interests and its Indo-Pacific strategy. Therefore, even in the future, China will need to continue following the lead of the U.S. and attaining the level of capability required to pose a significant threat to the U.S. will demand substantial effort and time. Therefore, considering national interests and security, Republic of Korea (ROK) should develop its relationship with the U.S. and China based on strategic clarity.