북한은 왜 “붕괴”도 “개혁개방”도 하지 않았을까?
Why has North Korea neither Collapsed nor Reformed and Opened?
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북한은 지난 20여 년 동안 크게 변화했지만 개혁·개방을 하지도 않았고붕괴하지도 않았다. 그 이유는 무엇인가? 먼저 정치적 측면을 보자. 북한에서는 최고 지도자의 권력이 압도적이었으며, 그리고 일당독재에 의해지배층이 강력한 단결력을 유지했다. 이 때문에 정치적 내구성이 증가했다. 경제적 측면을 보자. 북한 경제는 경제침체를 감수하면서 지지그룹에특혜를 제공하여 충성을 이끌어낸다. 또한 내부 경제 생산성이 낮지만광물 수출과 외부지원 수취와 같이 외래 지대를 통해 부족한 외화를 획득한다. 정권 대 사회 관계를 보자. 북한에서는 지도부에 분열이 존재하지않았고 사회 저항세력이 부족했다. 또한 본보기적 국가폭력 행사가 늘었고, 공안기구가 지속적으로 강화되어왔다. 결론적으로 북한은 개혁·개방하기 어려운 이유 때문에 붕괴하기 어려웠으며, 역으로 붕괴하기 어려운 이유 때문에 개혁·개방하기 어려웠다.
Abstract
Though, in the past 20 years, North Korea has changed significantly, North Korea has neither “opened and reformed” nor collapsed. Why? First, political aspect are considered. In North Korea, the power of the ruler has been absolute, and, based on one-party infrastructure, the regime supporting group has been maintained cohesive with a high level of unity. Thereby, political resilience has been increased. Second, economic aspests are explained. The structure and function of North Korean economy has been biased to provide the regime loyal groups with privileges, while economic stagnation being taken for granted. Additionally, North Korea has been taken advantage of supply of external rents, composed of mineral export and receipt of foreign assistance. Third, the relations between regime and society is considered. There has been neither division in the ruling coalition nor societal opposition. Besides, the use of exemplary violence has been increased and the internal security forces has been continuously strengthened.
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