전쟁의 장기화 원인에 관한 고찰: 베트남전쟁 사례를 중심으로
A Study on the Causes of War Protraction: Focusing on the Vietnam War
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대다수 전쟁연구는 ‘왜 전쟁이 발생하는가’와 ‘언제, 어떻게 시작할 것인가’에초점을 맞추어 온 반면, 전쟁이 ‘언제, 어떻게 종결되어 지는가’에 대한 연구는상대적으로 미흡했다고 볼 수 있다. 전쟁이 종결되는 조건에 대한 기존연구들은대부분 합리적 모델(rational model) 이론에 그 기반을 두고 있다. 그러나 실제로현실세계에서의 전쟁은 일단 시작하고 나면 합리적 모델에서 주장하는 손익분기점에서 종결이 이루어지지 않으며, 구조적인 요인들에 의해 흔히 장기화되는경향을 보여주고 있다. 본 연구는 전쟁이란 본질적으로 시작하기보다 끝내기가어렵다는 구조적 속성이 내재되어 있음을 전제하고, 이러한 전제를 뒷받침해주는 구조적 요인들을 규명하고 이러한 요인들이 실제 베트남전쟁에서 어떻게 작동되었는가에 연구의 중점을 두고 있다. 즉 전쟁 종결을 어렵게 하고 장기화로이어지게 만드는 반복적으로 되풀이되는 요인들을 제시한 후, 베트남전쟁을 사례로 그것들이 어떻게 베트남전쟁의 장기화에 기여를 했는가를 보여주고 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 한다.
Abstract
Most war studies have focused on the causes of war or when and how they should be initiated. However, research on war termination is relatively rare. A large portion of war termination studies are based on the rational model. However, real wars have a tendency of being protracted beyond the break-even point assigned by rational model theory. In this context, this study, under the premise that war is much easier to initiate rather than to end, examines the structural factors associated with war protraction and illuminates the Vietnam war as a case study. Some political implications are offered in the conclusion.
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