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PMI 예측에 이용된 파리 종의 법곤충학적 통계모형에 기초한 선행연구의 고찰 및 시사점

A Review and Implications of Preceding Research Based on Forensic Entomological Statistical Models of Fly Species Used in PMI Prediction

이재원|정수진|박지은
한국과학수사학회 (The Korean Academy of Scientific Criminal Investigation)|2023.12|과학수사학회지 (Journal of Science Criminal Investigation)|제17권 제4호|pp. 261-278

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키워드

회귀모형Regression modelGrowth curve성장곡선법곤충학Forensic entomology비모수적방법약물효과Nonparametric analysisDrug effect

초록

법곤충학에서 파리의 성장에 대한 정보는 사후경과시간(PMI)을 추정하는데 가장 핵심적인 부분이다. 특히 파리의 성장은 환경적, 유전적, 기후학적 요소 (온도, 습도, 종, 서식지 등) 들에 큰 영향을 받으므로 성장(사육)환경이 조금만 달라져도 성장속도가 크게 달라진다. 이 연구는 파리의 성장을 연구한 50편의 국내·외 다양한 논문들을 선정해서 해당 연구에서 파리의 성장곡선 추정에 사용된 통계적 기법을 알아보고 정리하였다. 50편의 논문은 다음과 같이 1) 파리 종의 성장에 영향을 주는 변수 탐색, 2) 파리 종의 성장곡선 추정, 3) 약물의 영향이 파리 종의 성장에 미치는 영향, 4) 기타 여러 조건하에서의 곤충 종의 성장관련모형 추정의 4개의 분야로 나누어졌다. 이 연구에서는 위의 4가지 기준에 따라 분류된 연구에 사용된 통계분석 방법과 그 결과를 살펴보고 다양한 상황에서 사용할 수 있는 적합한 통계적 모형들에 대해 제안하고자 한다.

Abstract

In forensic entomology, the growth estimation of flies is a major part of Post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation. Especially, the growth of flies depends on environmental, genetic, and climatological factors (e.g. temperature, humidity, species and habitat, and so on). In this study, we inspect statistical analysis methods to estimate the growth curves of flies in various researches. We select 50 published papers where growth estimations were carried out using the statistical models and try to summarize the current state of the growth curve estimation of fly species. We categorize the currently published papers into four parts: 1) variable exploration that affects the growth of fly species, 2) estimation model for the growth curve of fly species, 3) relationship between drug and growth of fly species, and 4) other factors that affect the growth of fly species and their association. We review the results of growth curve estimation according to the above categories and suggest its implications. Also, we find out effective statistical models for estimating the growth of flies under various circumstances and propose the appropriate statistical models under given circumstances.

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관련 논문AI추천

통계적 모형을 이용한 검정파리과(Diptera: Calliphoridae)의 성장 기간 추정을 위한 연구문태영, 박상현, 박성환, 박지은, 신상언, 이재원, 정수진한국과학수사학회 · 과학수사학회지2019 · 제13권 제2호한국에 서식하는 주요 시식성 파리종에 대한 성장 속도 실험에 대한 문헌 조사 및 최소사후경과시간 추정에의 적용을 위한 고찰강태모, 고광수, 박성환, 신상언, 염규진, 왕아라대한법의학회 · 대한법의학회지2021 · 제45권 제2호다양한 생태학적 상황에서의 파리 종 분포에 관한 연구: 법곤충학 및통계학적 관점에서의 리뷰박성환, 박지은, 이재원, 이효정, 정수진한국과학수사학회 · 과학수사학회지2018 · 제12권 제3호변사체 발견 장소에 따른 국내의 곤충 감정을 통한 최소 PMI 추정사례에 대한 검토신상언한국과학수사학회 · 과학수사학회지2024 · 제18권 제3호시그모이드 함수를 이용한 파리 종에 대한 성장곡선모형의 비교문태영, 박상현, 박성환, 박지은, 신상언, 이재원, 정수진대한법의학회 · 대한법의학회지2020 · 제44권 제2호사체의 사후경과시간 추정을 위한 구리금파리 (Lucilia sericata)(Diptera: Calliphoridae)의 성장에 관한 연구윤명희, 정재봉한국경찰연구학회 · 한국경찰연구2015 · 제14권 제1호

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