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상황적·조직적·환경적 요인이 검거 여부에 미치는 영향

The Effect of Situational, Organizational and Environmental Factors on the Success of the Arrest

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한국경찰학회 (Korean Association Of Police Science)|2017.06|한국경찰학회보 (The Korean Association of Police Science Review)|제19권 제3호|pp. 81-106

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참고문헌

키워드

범죄유형Arrest경찰예산Police BudgetHierarchical Generalized Linear ModelCrime Type검거일반화된 위계적 선형 모형상황적·조직적·환경적 요인Situational·Organizational·Environmental Factors

초록

이 연구의 목적은 상황적·조직적·환경적 요인이 검거 여부에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 2012년 한 해 동안 군산경찰서 산하 11개소의 지구대 및 파출소에 신고 된 약 3천여 건의 5대 범죄 사건을 연구의 대상으로 하였다. 위계적 구조를 가진 요인 간의 인과관계를 분석하기 위하여 일반화된 위계적 선형 모형 (Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model)을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 1 수준의 상황적 요인 중 범죄 유형과 2 수준의 조직적 요인 중 경찰 예산이 검거 여부에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 대부분의 기존 연구들은 검거 여부에 영향을 미치는 위계적 구조의 요인들을 무시한 채 회귀분석 등의 단층구조 방법으로 분석을 시도하였다. 그러나 이 연구는 검거 여부에 영향을 미치는 상황적·조직적·환경적 요인들을 모두 고려하였으며, 이를 다수준 분석을 통해 검증하였다. 경찰의 주요 범죄 통제 및 예방 수단인 검거의 본질을 이해하고 치안전략을 모색하는데 기여한다.

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of situational (i.e., type, place, time), organizational (i.e., budget, response time) and environmental (i.e., area, crime rates) factors on the success of arrest. Method – Hierarchical generalized linear modeling (HGLM) was used to determine the factors from different levels of analyses, and a case-study approach was adopted to conduct this exploratory study. Over 3,000 criminal cases, reported to Gunsan Police Agency throughout the year 2012, were examined. Findings/Implications – The type of crime at the situational level (Level 1) and the budget at the organizational level (Level 2) had positive effects on the success of arrest. These findings are partly in line with those of previous studies, but has important implications for developing strategy and future research. For example, research question that could be asked includes the relationship between police expenditure and arrest. Value – This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the different levels of factors that influence the success of arrest. Despite its exploratory nature, this study offers some insight into the nature of arrest.

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